Bonds In Conversation : Candy Rush then Candy Crushed
There was a Candy Rush to list in the stock market and Candy Crush dropped 16% in its trading debut, bringing smiles to only the private equity company that invested in them because they netted some 10,000% returns. Share price of King Digital Entertainment now US 18.49 versus IPO price US 22.50.
Don’t fret because Facebook was that way too ! When they IPO at US 38 back in May 2012, the stock crashed to 17.55 within 3 months before rising to its US 60.97 today after another share placement at US 55.05 in Dec last year.
For the record, I deleted Candy Crush last year after spending about 6 bucks on it before realising that there were a few thousand levels of play ahead and that was too fatiguing an idea for me.
As for Facebook, I just discovered it is a cause for depression and low self esteem,bombarded daily by all the OBSCENE PHOTOS…. of food that I will not get to eat. http://www.salon.com/2014/03/11/7_telltale_signs_social_media_is_killing_your_self_esteem_partner/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
And which may not last for long as the Hong Kong government steps up on her campaign to tell people “Don’t keep your eyes only on your mobile phone”. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eDl-slXetI
The worst is over, it would seem from the market reactions in the past days which is back to an expectation of government sponsored immunity to the investor community with daily rumours of Chinese and Japanese QE, H-shares returning their best week since Nov 13 and calm seen in bonds. No matter the news of further shake outs to come as Chinese companies face a credit crunch and bank runs lead to arrests in China for rumour mongering, we are headed into an optimistic month end and year end for some.
Credits had a good week, cruising into month end and no surprises as EM confidence returned, led by India in election mode. I shall not be expecting a sustained rally at this pace going into April. A lesson perhaps from Candy Crush ?
A good week for issuance with a 2Y government bond auction yesterday that came with a long tail which is unusual for short term notes. The cut off of 0.52% was 0.08% higher than expected for its small auction size of just SGD 2.3 bio which suggests that investment books are not loading up on paper, either because deposits are not expected to grow in the near term. I suppose this matches the expectations of large dividend payouts and stock buybacks next month which has led to a huge differential between STI futures expiring in Mar versus April.
Acquisitions are also in the cards with Temasek buying Watsons and OCBC finally getting the approval to buy Wing Hang, both in Hong Kong.
The 2 names that hit the street this week were high yield 2nd board listed Vallianz Holdings, selling SGD 100 mio of bonds at 7.2% (initial coupon 7.5%) to an order book of over a billion while SIA launched a SGD 500 mio 7Y and 10Y issue to great success as well. Both bonds trading above par, not candy-crushed !
Leaving you with the prices.
USD Bonds listed in HK and SGX
SGD 2014 New Issues
SGD 2013 Issues