REHASH : The Economists in Feb Said USDSGD at 1.2 ! GDP Next Week
In early Feb, I wrote Sunday Times, Coffee and Slight Nausea. Tired of reading the same old “piece of mind numbing happy utopia calls, I will protest at the Toto salaries they are all bringing home. Yes. We know what an economist fetches these days, its better than winning the Toto but surely, we cannot be breeding this batch of propaganda spewing experts in the name of independent research.”
“Every single recommendation was for USD/SGD at 1.20 to 1.22 by June and 1.19-1.20 by Dec. Every single recommendation for STI to fly. This is intended for public consumption and people like my father.”
I am not a genius for calling USDSGD at 1.26 then. But I bet they will protest that they were not expected to know about China and the rest and they were right for a few months and you should have read their latest piece ….
Like I quoted in Rise Of A New Dawn – Trading The New Abnormal, “Banks commentaries and recommendations are like main stream news media. If you don’t read them, you are uninformed. If you read them, then you are MISINFORMED. One of the rarest commodity now is an independent mind with original thoughts.”
Singapore will release their 2Q13 advance GDP forecast next week (estimated to be on the 9th of July although the window is 8-14 July). One of the first countries in the world with an early announcement.
The street call is for a good number averaging 1.7% YoY growth. The median call is for 1.9% growth which is better than 1Q13 which surprised at +1.8% when -1.2% was expected.
I am of half a mind that they will do a conservative thing and rein in expectations, saving the rig and marine orders for a rainy day in view of the haze slowdown. No point in being the hero growth market when the region is slowing rapidly.
Therefore I am choosing to disagree with the new calls for continuing strength of the SGD. Let the market decide.
- Putting the Funky SGD Policy to the Test (tradehaven.me)
- Likonomics Vs Abenomics and Singapore (tradehaven.me)