Ad Hoc Commentary – Malaysian elections, the incumbent will likely stay in power
Malaysians goes to the pool today, and yours truly believe that the incumbent will stay in power. However, their days are numbered. This is likely the last five years for the incumbent. Just as in Japan’s case in 1993, the long time ruler does not usually get kicked out until the economy turns. In Japan’s cae, the bursting of the Heisei bubble in 1989 kicked out the long time rulers in 1993:
“…But by 1993, the end of the miracle economy and other reasons (e.g. Recruit scandal) led to the LDP losing its majority in that year’s general election…”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Liberal_Democratic_Party_(Japan)
In Malaysia’s case, political risk will be the next elections, not this one. Follow the debt. Malaysia had it good recently as foreign holdings of local currency government bonds rose from about 0% to 30% in the last decade:
http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/regional/data/bondmarket.php?code=Foreign_Holdings
However, dancing with debt is mortgaging the future. The incumbent knows this. What do you think the kings will do if they know they have only 5 years in power left? Follow their conscience and leave the country a better place for the next generation? Or grab everything before he is forced to abdicate the throne? Singaporeans looking to buy real estate up north should ask themselves these questions.
Yours truly believe that the US dollar will strengthen as we head into the final throes of the American sovereign debt crisis. We remember how the Japanese yen strengthened from the highs in late 2007 fueled by short covering of the Yen carry trade. As America move from print print print to tax tax tax, the US dollar will rally back from zero to hero, fueled by short covering by companies borrowing in US dollars.
Malaysian companies will not be spared, and these contingent liabilities will appear once again on the sovereign books as it did in the 1998 Asian crisis. Thus it is perhaps premature to believe that the incumbent will lose the current elections. The debt had not turned yet.
Good luck in the markets.
They will win alright.
“40,000 plantations workers on a plane by the weekend to vote in Selangor?”
“Was at Heathrow on Tuesday and met some senior aircrew. They claim that Najib is using MAS old 747s (the ones which were old and replaced by the new A380s) to fly foreigners in from both KK and Kuching….. there have been several of these flights over the past weeks”[UK journalist].
I love this one best !!
”I will buy any property you have in Central London on your books. I need to get my money out as there is to be an election in Malaysia soon and the next government may be stricter about people like me taking out money like this!”
http://www.sarawakreport.org/2013/05/down-at-the-airport/
UMNO have admitted they are behind the chartered flights to bring ‘voters’ in from East Malaysia.
But, stunning new footage, posted just hours before polling booths open, now indicates that some of those ‘voters’ are actually Nepalese plantation workers with foreign passports.
http://www.malaysia-today.net/mtcolumns/from-around-the-blogs/56499-caught-in-the-dead-of-night-bns-suspected-flying-voters-say-they-are-from-nepal
Worst outcome. Groom won but failed to stop the rot. This gives the groom no hope of winning the next. There will likely be huge turmoil in a year’s time when the bride realizes the groom is using her for his own short term pleasure without any long term plans. She will likely become resentful as he destroys her future. Of course now is honeymoon time, but be very careful in 2014.
yes… i see mass culling and this time they cannot run to Spore who has just announced their engagement.
Good news for Iskandar property owners though and kudos to the Malaysians who put their money where their mouths are. They cannot fight Nepalese phantoms anyway.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-06/malayasia-s-vote-is-over-but-drama-is-just-beginning.html