2 Violent Nights to Valentines
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Thought the Greek deal should have sealed it.
EURUSD high yesterday evening of 1.3284 and now we are trying to break 1.31 (low 15 mins ago at 1.3128). Thank you Moodys – a.k.a. Buffet-slave.
Near term looks oversold. Support 1.3130 lvl. S/L sub 1.3100 and >1.3230.
Japan news shook off the blues of last night’s downgrades leading the risk on charge with the EUR/JPY which I happened to be long.
14Feb12 RTRS-FOREX-Yen extends drop as BOJ boosts asset buying
* BOJ to boost asset buys by Y10 trln, to buy long-term JGBs
* C.bank also sets 1 pct inflation goal
* Analysts say impact on dlr/yen may prove fleeting
* Moody’s puts UK, France, Austria on negative outlook
* Downgrades six other European nations
Everything seems to have broken out of range. USDSGD dog of the day, SURPRISE. State Budget announcement set for 17th Feb at 3pm.
Bye bye expensive smokes! Hello even more expensive smokes !
| MY WORLD (per USD) | 2/13/12 – 2/14/12 | 1 Day | 1 Mon | 3 Mon | 6 Mon | |
| Brazilian Real | BRL | 0 | 0 | 4.08 | 2.95 | -6.09 |
| Chinese Renminbi | CNY | -0.03 | -0.03 | 0.1 | 0.87 | 1.43 |
| Taiwanese Dollar | TWD | -0.14 | -0.14 | 1.37 | 2.01 | -1.99 |
| South Korean Won | KRW | -0.17 | -0.17 | 2.19 | -0.05 | -3.93 |
| Canadian Dollar | CAD | -0.19 | -0.19 | 2.16 | 1.51 | -1.43 |
| Indian Rupee | INR | -0.25 | -0.25 | 4.48 | 1.97 | -8.07 |
| Norwegian Krone | NOK | -0.27 | -0.27 | 5.64 | -0.32 | -3.69 |
| Swiss Franc | CHF | -0.27 | -0.27 | 3.63 | -1.18 | -15.35 |
| Euro | EUR | -0.33 | -0.33 | 3.65 | -3.59 | -7.76 |
| British Pound | GBP | -0.39 | -0.39 | 2.53 | -1.28 | -3.51 |
| Thai Baht | THB | -0.42 | -0.42 | 3.05 | -0.29 | -3.01 |
| Australian Dollar | AUD | -0.5 | -0.5 | 3.45 | 4.63 | 3.12 |
| Indonesian Rupiah | IDR | -0.51 | -0.51 | 1.32 | -1.05 | -5.58 |
| Japanese Yen | JPY | -0.53 | -0.53 | -1.3 | -1.17 | -1.63 |
| New Zealand Dollar | NZD | -0.53 | -0.53 | 4.38 | 6.29 | -0.32 |
| Philippine Peso | PHP | -0.67 | -0.67 | 2.46 | 1.22 | -0.27 |
| Malaysian Ringgit | MYR | -0.74 | -0.74 | 2.79 | 2.89 | -1.43 |
Going long AUD/USD and EUR/JPY into ZEW (exp 30.5 prev 28.4) at 6pm SG time and also EU Dec Ind Prod exp at -1.2% prev -0.3%.
On other news.
1. NAB Jan Business Conditions this morning coming at +2 (prev +1) failed to drive AUD/USD higher than 1.0739 (yest’s high 1.0779).
2. Chicken wing prices through the roof because of Superbowl where 1.25 bio wings were eaten last Sunday.
3. Rare Double Crosses in the Market: Golden cross in S&P vs Death Cross in VIX only happened once since 1990.
4. Something to counter the above.
Hedge funds are not keeping too much money on the sidelines as evidenced in their Jan returns and Roubini (last bear ?) has turned bull. Just indicates there market is not that underweight risk assets.
|
January |
Number of |
YTD through |
|
| Barclay Hedge Fund Index |
2.90% |
1333 |
2.90% |
| Hedge Fund Industry Money Under Management | |||
| SUB INDICES | |||
| Convertible Arbitrage Index |
2.38% |
17 |
2.38% |
| Distressed Securities Index |
2.56% |
21 |
2.56% |
| Emerging Markets Index |
4.72% |
213 |
4.72% |
| Equity Long Bias Index |
4.75% |
158 |
4.75% |
| Equity Long/Short Index |
1.89% |
289 |
1.89% |
| Equity Market Neutral Index |
0.93% |
50 |
0.93% |
| Equity Short Bias Index |
-10.48% |
4 |
-10.48% |
| European Equities Index |
2.51% |
91 |
2.51% |
| Event Driven Index |
3.04% |
44 |
3.04% |
| Fixed Income Arbitrage Index |
1.17% |
37 |
1.17% |
| Fund of Funds Index |
1.85% |
324 |
1.85% |
| Global Macro Index |
2.16% |
103 |
2.16% |
| Healthcare & Biotechnology Index |
4.78% |
12 |
4.78% |
| Merger Arbitrage Index |
0.81% |
15 |
0.81% |
| Multi Strategy Index |
1.83% |
41 |
1.83% |
| Pacific Rim Equities Index |
2.63% |
34 |
2.63% |
| Technology Index |
1.87% |
22 |
1.87% |
| †Estimated performance for January 2012, number of funds included and YTD calculated with reported data as of February-13-2012 06:45 US CST | |||
Source: Barclays
5. Iran, Israel trade blame over embassy attack in India
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-israel-india-bombing-20120214,0,7303235.story
Not keeping many positions overnight after 2 violent nights.