Ad Hoc Commentary – junior doctors will probably be one of the first to be computerized
In our wrap-up for 2015, we briefly mentioned that the awakening of robots will be the main drama of the coming years: “…Productivity gains in both white-collar and blue-collar work would surprise many. Unless we have a revamp of morals and ethics, it is likely that nearly all the future productivity gains from robotics will accrue to corporate profits as opposed to labor…” https://tradehaven.net/ad-hoc-commentary-wrapping-up-2015/
Let us elaborate on that. As sardine fishermen in Kerala had become the poster child of optimism in mobile technology, yours truly believes that the automation of white-collar junior doctor jobs will be poster child of the surprising ability of modern technology to commoditize white-collar work.
Back in 2013, Frey and Osborne ranked professions based on their susceptibility to automation (refer to Figure III on page 37): http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf
Using what yours truly believe is a predominantly technical yardstick, they put medical professionals as one of the most unlikely jobs to be automated in the coming years. However, yours truly believes the contrary is true – medical doctors are likely one of the first to go. There are three reasons for this: technical, economic and political.
Firstly, from a technical perspective, IBM Watson’s had shown that it is technically feasible for computers to do diagnosis and draw up treatment plans:
“One of the most promising areas is in medicine. Repurposed as a diagnostic tool, Watson offers the ability to extract precise answers from a staggering amount of medical information… No single doctor could possibly approach Watson’s ability to delve into vast collections of data and discover relationships that might not be obvious… By 2013, Watson was helping to diagnose problems and refine patient plans at major medical facilities…” page 102, Rise of the Robots, Martin Ford
Next, from an economic point of view, even though growth in health-care spending is slowing, America spends 17% of GDP on health care:
“…BACK in 1980, when Jimmy Carter was president and leg warmers were cool, America spent 9% of GDP on health care. Now it spends a whopping 17%—far more than any other rich country…”
We can draw a lesson from the oil markets. If there is one factor that drove the shale gas and the alternative energy revolution, it is 100 dollar per barrel oil. Similarly, the one factor that will drive the search for efficiency gains and the search for alternative to medical labor is the high prices Americans pay for healthcare today.
Finally, political will is probably strong given the constant worry that Medicare and Social Security net cash-flow are turning negative and will strain government creditworthiness. It his last State of the Union, outgoing President Obama mentioned that broken politics usually stand in the way of solutions:
“…“The future we want — opportunity and security for our families; a rising standard of living and a sustainable, peaceful planet for our kids — all that is within our reach,” Mr. Obama said. “But it will only happen if we work together. It will only happen if we fix our politics.”…”
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/12/obama-state-union-calls-americans-fix-our-politics/
Medical doctors are probably not going to get much sympathy, and the doctor strike in Britain is only going to cause the public to lose sympathy for doctors, especially if they are seen as putting love of money above the supposedly altruistic nature of their job:
In summary, even though it is technically more challenging to automate doctors, it is much more rewarding economically, and it probably does not suffer from political resistance. In a way, after considering politics, it is probably easier to automate doctors, than to automate taxi drivers using Google’s driverless cars.
Good luck in the markets.