BONDS IN CONVERSATION : TIME FOR A BLUE MOON

What a week and what a time for renewal.

Renewed selling in Chinese stocks, renewed EM bashing, renewal in Malaysia with a fire that destroyed evidence and hopefully, they can start afresh, and more importantly, perhaps closure for MH370 at last.

Renewal we shall see in this website too, because we shall finally be launching that new website that I have been talking about for eternity. And that is the reason why I am rushing this out for there will be some downtime this weekend.

It will be a Blue Moon tomorrow where we will have 2 full moons in a month, that occurs once every 2.7 years, we have 13 full moons instead of the usual 12.

And it is definitely a blue moon that we have the FED accidentally publishing their projections on their website.

10Y US yields at 2.63% by year end ?

I am not sure but I do note an interesting trend between 10Y yield and the HYG (high yield bond ETF).

The 10Y yield has failed to break 2.5% 3 times this year while the HYG ETF has failed to break that 86 dollar support twice in the past 7 months.

In his blog, Wolf Richter noted that high yield credit spreads are on an uptrend but way off their distressed highs back in 2012 as resource companies continue to suffer and it is not just the small chaps like the kiwi milk farmers with Shell the latest to slash jobs and spending.

All I know is that secular stagnation is the best case scenario that we are facing right now and that anemic growth is the best prospect as we have the US GDP numbers out tonight and the market has never been so long the USD in 2015 as they have in their entire history.

 

Yet, Asia is looking particularly bad with South Korea really slipping badly from their phones to their ships. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/korea-ratings-deteriorate-most-in-decade-as-export-engine-stalls

Given we always had China to look at for optimism and now that the SHCOMP is looking real sickly, I can only say, this happens once in a BLUE MOON.

*******

In Singapore, market excitement came from the PT Duta deal being pulled from the market despite the arrangers claiming to have secured over 50 mio in orders which is a good reason for Singapore junk bonds to outperform ? https://tradehaven.net/market/not-say-i-want-to-say-singapore-junk-bonds-can-buy-ar/

Viva Industrial Trust was downgraded 2 notches to BB, making its non investment grade and their bond price dropped by 1 ct.

DBS made history by issuing the first covered bonds out of a Singapore bank only to see their 1 bio issue size get less orders (1.37 bio orderbook) than their other deal, which is also a first, for a Ezion SGD 120 mio “Committed Funding Backed Note”. The Ezion/DBS paper rallied strongly in its first day of trading, up 1.25% and erasing 0.27% off its issued yield which was erased 0.35% from their first indication.

Noble’s 6% USD perp bond has the fortune of being the worst performer, possibly, for the week, falling nearly 9 cts to 70 cts after their stock price fell to a 6 year low.

I guess it is time for the Blue Moon.

Leaving with the indicative prices.

Asian G3 Bonds

2015 SGD Bonds

2014 SGD Bonds