FOREX THOUGHTS : GREX-IN OR GREXIT ? AND OUR NEXT WORRIES

Is today the real crunch day ?

Monday June 22: Emergency summit

After finance ministers failed to reach a deal in Luxembourg, eurozone leaders have been summoned to an emergency summit in Brussels for last-ditch talks aimed at preventing Greece from defaulting on its debts and potentially crashing out of the EU’s common currency.

 

 

It would appear that we have till the 20th of July where Greece’s ECB debt falls due. Failing to pay the IMF does not constitute a default as the rating agencies have stated.

Our unhealthy preoccupation with Greece has bought us plenty of breathing space for ourselves in the past week as currencies rallied back against the USD and the dovish FOMC.

With contagion looking containable, as global banks’ exposure to Greece well below historical norms after their write downs in 2012, I look at the Greece problem as solved whether we have a Grexin or Grexit.

bank exposure to greece

Source : Otterwood Capital Management

 

It is the uncertainty that kills.

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