FOMC : If I Were An Equity Investor, The Dots And The Hindenburgs
If I were an equity investor, I would not be overly worried really.
The dots look more in consensus but there is more to the bark than the bite, and the outliers have been taken into the fold as far as 2015 is concerned.
MARCH FOMC DOT PLOT
JUNE FOMC DOT PLOT
This means we are going to be really hanging onto those economic numbers daily from here, especially CPI which is stupidly associated with oil prices which are stupidly dependent on the USD too, besides those naughty ISIS rebels out there.
Volatility is now entrenched with 100 pt swings common.
I suspect more than less people now seriously believe in an equity market correction and we have not seen this high a bearish reading in the AAII US Investor Bearish Sentiment Index since Aug last year as more Neutrals are turning bearish even as the bulls are slowly returning.
And we had another Hindenburg sighting last week on 12 Jun, after the one in March. https://tradehaven.net/market/april-fools-hindenburg-galore/
NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX
In the absence of any bad news which would cause markets to rally (delay in rate hikes and more stimulus) and with the VIX looking complacent, the chances of a correction are pretty high into half year closing.