SGD Rates Weekly : SOR-LID

Some people could not wait till next month to get their cars when COE supply is expected to soar by 41%.  And of course it was Cat B and Cat E that inflated in last week’s tender though not quite as much as the stock market that is up 7% from its lows in Jan, breaking its 7 year high on 16 April. Solid grounds !

MAR CPI +0.2% MoM vs expected +0.2%
MAR CPI -0.3% YoY vs expected -0.5%
MAR Core CPI +1% YoY vs expected +1.1%
MAR Ind Production +1.2% MoM vs expected +0.8%
MAR Ind Production -5.5% YoY vs expected -5.8%

SGS TABLE

USD 1M Libor 0.1815%
USD 3M Libor 0.279% (2 year high)
USD 6M Libor 0.4089%

Pretty volatile bond markets selling off after the mad rally the week before into early last week before buying back to close the week back at early April levels as SGD continued to strengthen against the NEER basket to trade above the mid point of the NEER for the first time this year (actually since late last year).

At this rate, I would think the USDSGD is looking interesting to punters again, testing its weekly support pivot (1.3112), coming off nearly 4% in the last 3 weeks. Interest rates also look comfortable at their current levels and the easier bet would be for higher rates than for much lower, unless the Chinese QE rumours materialise.

We have the FOMC decision tonight that promises to be an earth shattering no matter what they decide because of extreme market positioning in the long USD trade much like what we have witnessed in the past 48 hours.

SGD rates and bonds will be tracking the US into the month end and days ahead as portfolios adjust themselves into May which makes a good case for underinvestment from the rest of us after a solid performance.