Australia Focus : Not All Is Lost

“Australia’s high-value services exports, led by tourism and education, have overtaken iron ore to become our biggest foreign exchange earners. Services exports now are worth more than coal and LNG combined.”

The lower AUDUSD is doing Australian services a service for them to finally develop into a first world nation and away from those farms and mines.
Therefore I am not so sure about the human tsunami of asylum seekers that an Indonesian minister has threatened to unleash onto the land of the wallabies.
In December, RBA Governor Stevens earmarked 0.75 as the AUDUSD ideal exchange rate and the 1% depreciation this week brings us closer to it, closing this week at a 5 year low and with market positioned  at their most bearish (CFTC shorts)  in history.
aud weekly


Not much onshore except for the lower consumer confidence and lower unemployment rate this week with bond prices tracking the US closely.
The EURAUD call from last week worked and I am taken aback at how quickly it materialised as the 1.38 gave way without a fight.
EURAUDEURAUD weekly chart


It looks like  we will not see too many European tourists in Australia anytime soon. However Indians and Chinese should be finding Australia cheap these days which is good for the economy, migration and investments. It is simply just a nice place to live in.

AUDCNY weekly chart

AUDCNY weekly chart


The weekly stock market chart has been eerily accurate delivering my prediction of correction.

asx weekly

I think it is time to give Australia a break as we head into Spring next week on the 20th. We have the RBA minutes on 17 March (830 am SG time) and Governor Stevens will speak on 20 March in Melbourne (10:10 am SG time).

And of course the most important FOMC of our lives (note that each FOMC will be the most important going forward) on the 19th.

The risk of market pandemonium is high but we really do not know what to expect when it erupts.

Good luck !

Indicative prices of AUD bonds

aud bonds