Singapore Equity: Compact Metal (Update)

Share price has declined since I first wrote about this (SGD 0.041 currently vs SGD 0.045 as of 18 Jan 2015).

The decline was due to the company being put on SGX’s watchlist due to 3 consecutive years of pre-tax losses, causing sharp sell-offs  on 04 and 05 March 2015:

More importantly, Compact Metal announced after the close of the market on Friday 06 March 2015 that:

(1) SGX has approved the placement exercise of new shares (@ SGD 0.05) to Mr Douglas Ong subject to shareholders’ approval.
(2) SGX has cleared the draft circular for the proposed diversification of the company’s business into cement.

Interestingly, Compact Metal has disclosed more details about its cement business with a proposed cement plant in Kazakhstan with annual capacity of 1.2m to 1.5m metric tonnes (MT) and Compact holding a majority stake of up to 75%.

Investment cost is S$96m (based on 100% stake) so maximum investment cost is S$72m.

As of 31 Dec 2014, Compact Metal had cash holdings of $33.5m, debt of $3.7m.
The placement to Mr Douglas Ong will raise another $7.9m.
Compact also has 466.4m worth of warrants outstanding (exercise price of SGD 0.02 per warrant) which can raise another S$9.3m.

Post the placement exercise and assuming full exercise of the warrants, total equity of the company will be S$73.4m.

Assuming maximum investment cost of S$72m, Compact Metal will need to assume additional debt of SGD 21.3m which will result in a net debt to equity ratio of 34%.

As mentioned in my first posting, it appears that this cement plant may be involved in China’s New Silk Road project which cuts through Central Asia.

Details can be found here:

Some facts about the Kazakhstan cement industry:
1. Total capacity as of end 2014 is estimated to be 11.2 MT per annum.
2. Total consumption was 8.5m MT in 2014, an increase of 4% yoy.
3. Imports amounted to 1.1m MT, exports was 0.5m MT
4. Ex-factory selling price based on Steppe Cement’s 2014 revenue was USD 71/MT (down from USD 77/MT in 2013).
5. Overall industry utilisation rate is around 82%.

Some quick and dirty estimates
1. Revenue contribution from Compact Metal’s cement plant will range from USD 70m to USD 87m (assuming 82% utilisation rate).
2. Operating profit contribution will range from USD 10.5m to USD 13.1m (using 15% operating margin based on Steppe Cement’s 2012 and 2013’s numbers)
3. Net profit contribution will range from USD 7.8m to USD 9.9m (assuming 5% interest cost on SGD 21m or USD 15.5m of debt and Kazakhstan corporate tax rate of 20%).

Total number of shares assuming full exercise of warrants = 1,266.7m
Thus, EPS will range from SGD 0.008 to SGD 0.0106.

This implies future P/E of 3.9x to 4.9x once the cement plant is completed and operates at optimal capacity which will probably take a few years.

Now it makes sense why Mr Ma and Mr Zhang were willing to cough up such a huge premium for their shares (SGD 0.08 vs then traded prices ranging from SGD 0.046 – 0.048) and why Mr Douglas Ong is willing to pay SGD 0.05 vs the current share price of SGD 0.041).