China Focus : A Quiet End To The Year

Not sure what’s brewing in China and I do not think many people do even if they claim so.

But those renegade corrupt officials living in the US better beware as President Xi will make his first state visit to the US this September and the 2 countries discuss repatriation of those who had fled to America with “billions of dollars”. (Note that this is usually preceded by CNY strengthening)

Macau VIP casinos are reportedly going out of business as Patek Philippe prices in HK crash !?? (despite the stronger CHF) by 2-22%, according to Apple Daily.

It does look like China is darling no more as India takes up investment headlines these days. I particularly like The Economist’s latest headline – Racing The Elephant Against The Dragon.

India’s economic growth has suddenly outstripped China’s as the country discovers the magical powers of accounting methodology.

India forecast its growth will accelerate this fiscal year under a revised method for calculating gross domestic product (GDP) that has confused economists since it was unveiled 12 days ago.

The economy will grow 7.4% in the year through March 31, aided by a 7.5% increase in October-December, the Statistics Ministry said in New Delhi on Monday.

Since the market has a really short term memory, we shall take this new GDP number as good, going forward and before long, I daresay, Indonesia will follow suit and beat China too !

Beating China is easy, it seems as India also takes the new world record for having the most polluted city on Earth – New Dehli.

I really would not cheer too much for China as S&P expects the real estate recovery to to be uneven with more price corrections to come, and we are not sure who is the next CEO to be arrested.

CNH bond issuance has slowed sharply as markets expect more weakness in the currency.

“(Bloomberg) — Offshore yuan bond sales slumped 53 percent this year as borrowing costs in Hong Kong surged on bearish bets against the Chinese currency.
Dim Sum note issuance fell to 26.2 billion yuan ($4.2 billion), compared with 55.6 billion yuan a year earlier..”
Yields are still not bad, I think and the currency will only continue to gain more global trade acceptance especially with all these US and EU embargoes that will not go away. But chasing equities is probably the big trade going into the Golden Week holidays because it is always auspicious to rally in a new lunar year.
Good luck !
Leaving with the indicative prices and a movie recommendation for the holidays – an oldie but goodie (suggest upcoming film makers consider Wong Fei Hong To India).
chandni Chowk To China