2015 EM Outlook : The Rising Boats In The Ebbing Tide

The year is not ending on a high note for the MSCI EM Index despite hitting a 3 year high sometime in the 3rd quarter.

 

We are closing the year lower than last year, thanks to the drag by Russia and their oil mob. EM economic numbers are haphazard and out of synch as big brother China is on a clean up rampage and fast forwarding financial reforms, leaving the rest of the EM markets behind.

Stock markets have mostly done well to contrasting degrees, particularly if you throw in the forex element. Argentina may look good on paper gains but not when the currency loss of 24% against the USD and the cost of credit insurance of 11.3% is thrown in.

China, India, Philippines, Thailand and Pakistan eclipsed the unlucky losses in Malaysia and South Korea, as far as Asia is concerned.

Table : EM countries and the year to date changes in equity, currency, credit default swaps, short term rates with population, GDP, GDP growth, CPI and unemployment data.

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