AUD UPDATE
Thus we saw AUDUSD break a 4 year low at 0.8215 on Thursday and AUDSGD at a new 5 year low of 1.0798.
My call is for it to close the year at 0.86 with just 2 weeks left.
AUD Bond Prices (unverified)
Thus we saw AUDUSD break a 4 year low at 0.8215 on Thursday and AUDSGD at a new 5 year low of 1.0798.
My call is for it to close the year at 0.86 with just 2 weeks left.
AUD Bond Prices (unverified)
Are you still calling for AUDUSD to be at 0.86 by year end ? &
what is your reason ?
Tks
Hey,
It is mainly because 0.86 has been the last support and I feel that the market has priced in too much expectations for an RBA cut which may not happen in the near term (housing market and inflationary concerns may outweigh the need for stimulus). Positions are quite short on the AUD and there is an expensive price to pay for that – 2.5% per annum. If we have a dovish Fed on Thursday morning (50% odds), there is a chance of a pull back on all the oversold currencies.
Reversals are the hardest to call in a trending market so I cannot pin it down to the date if you held a gun to my head. Nonetheless, the AUD level is good enough to start building up medium term positions in. And also because I do not believe we will see a repeat of 2008 when oil fell from 147 to 32 in 4 months.