FX Thoughts : Wow !

I am not cowering under my duvet because I had to cut my USDJPY last week at 120 and I not running away from my FX remissness.

But is does serve a reminder that the trader’s golden rule is never to discuss trades but just give the analysis, one of my new year resolutions this year which I forgot about. https://tradehaven.net/market/fx/trading-is-pineapple-tart-business-eurusd/ (Ms Genius here shorting EUR in Feb ! and should have just stuck with it !)

Last Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls swept the market off its feet for a few hours until China came in on Monday.

But the WOW of the number is not the 321 jobs created. It is the raw number of 497k jobs created before a seasonal adjustment was made to reduce it to 321k. http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/tab1.txt

2.73 million jobs in 12 months silenced all economists and strategists as every single currency of consequence got slammed in a sweeping USD rally that lasted till yesterday which was enough to take out most of the stop losses in a fortuitous windfall for the trading algos.

It does not look good really when we have had some central banks come out to intervene,  officially like Russia , unable to hide $1.93 bio sold last Friday and surreptitiously as in the case of China, keeping the market guessing to the tune of USD 1 bio and even whispers about Singapore giving her dollar a  boost.


There is no explanation really and most of the price action has been driven by just pure sentiments.

If you disagree, then look at GOLD. [Me wrong about selling at 1184]

4 Dec

gold ecb

Markets clearly have no clue.

Looking for the next direction after the central bank meetings last week would be the FOMC next week on the 18th.

The smattering of Fed speakers have been keeping pretty mum.

Thus for this week ?


brentBrent Crude

Bottomed yet ?

Take your pick. I am not telling this week but DXY has got off to an ugly start after 497k jobs !

dxy weekly

It will be a roller coaster, I guarantee.

For those sleepless nights.