Equity Monday : Sell On Sunspots And On Full Moons

This may sound crazy …. but I can assure you it is not a case of boredom on my part or a display of wild eccentricity for I did a juxtaposition of the new moon-full moon stock market movement to test moon phase technique I mentioned before. https://tradehaven.net/market/markets-are-turning-today-bradley-turns-with-the-k-wave-sell-now-or-buy-vols/

“Tom Pelc, a former RBS strategist, who did some intriguing work on market timing with moon phases and how sun spots affect market activity. ” http://www.markettiming.nl/img/image/file/RBS_MoonTrading13Jun10.pdf

full moon spx

In the past 12 months, if you had bought on new moon days and sold on full moon days, there are only 2 times when you would be clearly out of the money.  This works ?

It is full moon this Friday, 7 November which coincides with the Non Farm payroll economic release, so you have 4 days to rally from here before a correction ?

On a separate note, I dug out some old notes of his, published in 2010 as part of a presentation to global investors.

What caught my eye was a sunspot cycle which reaches a maximum every 11 years. Heightened sunspot activity has been matched with recessionary markets that would be raising many eyebrows in these current times where we are seeing heightened sunspot activity and  the US economy is finally stabilising.

Yet in the past 2 weeks, we have had the largest sunspot in 24 years firing a series of solar flares at Earth (http://www.wsj.com/video/largest-sunspot-in-24-years-erupts/D691CD2A-0023-4CBC-8F43-D8B7BDD0EFCF.html) and probably has nothing to do with the explosion of the Antares rocket last week just minutes into launch. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/11194360/Antares-rocket-explodes-spectacularly-shortly-after-take-off.html

[Virgin Galactic spacecraft crashed last Friday too ! http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2817945/Did-rush-build-space-ship-big-carry-passengers-cause-Virgin-Galactic-crash-Former-test-pilot-reveals-concerns-scaling-engine.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline]

Examining the sunspot activity chart, courtesy of NASA, we are at peak times now with the 2 other peaks back in 2001 & 2003 (Sep 2011 & Gulf War 2)  and 1990-1991  (Gulf War).


I shall transcribe a quote from Professor A.L. Tchijevsky from the 1920’s that was mentioned in the presentation.

As soon as the sunspot activity approaches its maximum, the number of important mass historical events, taken as a whole, increases, approaching its maximum during sunspot maximum …

In the middle points of the cycle, the mass activity of all humanity, assuming the presence in human societies of economical, political, or military exciting factors, reachers the maximum tension, manifesting itself in psychomotoric pandemics, revolutions, insurrections, expeditions, migrations, etc – thus creating new formations in the existing separate states and new historical epochs in the life of humanity. It is accompanied by an integration of the masses, a full expression of their activity and a form of government consisting of a majority.

Wikipedia : “proposed that human history is influenced by the eleven-year peaks in sunspot activity, triggering humans en masse to act upon existing grievances and complaints through revolts, revolutions, civil wars and wars between nations” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Chizhevsky

Well, the good news is that sunspot activity is expected to tone down in the days ahead till the second half of the month when it will resume again.

I have decided not to drive myself into a state of paranoia, for we are in the middle (2nd one) of tetrads, of 4 consecutive full lunar eclipses that coincided with Jewish festivals. This has happened only 8 times A.D. https://tradehaven.net/market/ad-hoc-commentary-four-blood-moons-aligned-with-jewish-holidays/

162-163 AD
795-796 AD
842-843 AD860-861 AD
1493-1494 AD
1949-1950 AD
1967-1968 AD
2014-2015 AD

In all, we had 62 tetrads between 1 AD – present. http://earthsky.org/space/what-is-a-blood-moon-lunar-eclipses-2014-2015

The last tetrads of eclipses occurred in 2003-2004, a tumultuous period for the world considering SARS and the second Gulf War.

Enough gloom for now. The next new moon to buy stocks would be 22 Nov (a Saturday). At the same time, we have the end of the Hindenburg Omen on 28 Nov which hopefully means no more crashes and a major Bradley turn date on 20 Nov. https://tradehaven.net/market/equity-thursday-er-we-have-2-hindenburgs-thank-you-baba-us/

What an exciting ride we have ahead.

Like I said 2 weeks back, better start thinking about the risks we don’t think about. https://tradehaven.net/market/better-start-thinking-about-the-risks-we-dont-think-about/