Markets Are Turning Today – Bradley Turns With The K-Wave ? Sell Now or Buy Vols ?
I am no astrologer and am not exactly a big fan although I do glance at those horoscopes, occasionally, for a laugh at the things that never happen.
When you combine astrology with charts, it get interesting and I have been a fan of some pretty renown strategists who work with planetary alignments. An example is Tom Pelc, a former RBS strategist, who did some intriguing work on market timing with moon phases and how sun spots affect market activity. http://www.markettiming.nl/img/image/file/RBS_MoonTrading13Jun10.pdf
For all who believe in patterns and cycles, we cannot close our eyes to the patterns in daily lives, in the whorls of leaves and tide cycles and the Fibonacci waves in market trends.
Today is a major Bradley turn date for 2014, July the 16th. A method pioneered by Donald Bradley in the 1940’s that assigns numbers and importance to planetary alignments. Today is also the day Jupiter moves into Leo.
Bradley turn dates are intended to predict turns in the market, with the direction more important than magnitude and they have been quite accurate so far. http://forbestadvice.com/Money/Gurus/DonaldBradley/BradleyTurnDates2014.html
S&P 500 chart with Bradley Turn Dates (arrow) 2014. Major turn dates for 2014 are 1 Jan, 16 Jul and 20 Nov.
It is particularly significant if we pair a Bradley turn date with a Kondratieff cycle, which is a supercycle (long economic cycle) that is not commonly used in mainstream economics given that each cycle is supposed to span 50-60 years or roughly, 2 generations.
By sheer coincidence, it was mentioned to me that we are at the end of a particular K wave that signals a depression cycle for the US between 2015 to 2020. (good for safe haven bonds)
As a Zerohedge article puts it, it is not the only theory that suggests we are at the peak. In fact, sun spot activity has peaked in early 2014, which heralds the coming of cold spells. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-13/if-economic-cycle-theorists-are-correct-2015-2020-will-be-devastating-us
I read up some hypotheses on Wikipedia and how 2015 will be the end of the telecommunications and IT revolution for markets, a movement that started back in 1985 and found the argument highly plausible. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave
Asking me to short markets with Yellen on again tonight with Congress feels slightly suicidal. Therefore, I am thinking maybe the VIX or options, just in case.
It definitely will not hurt to take precautions with all these cycles pointing to a peak and a downturn.
Are we at the peak of the EM bubble ?
We will find out next year.