Leaders In Fear…. What Will China Say ? And the S&P 500

Naughty global leaders better cower in fear these days.

It is so easy and we just need to look at Ukraine, Venezuela, Thailand and the rest.

Formula : Protest, riot and protest some more on public holidays. Get Amnesty in and voila – New Government and Aid from America.

But poor Ukraine got short changed. For all the riots, property damage and lives lost … All they got rewarded with was a measly USD 1 bio loan guarantee for their 44 million population. http://nypost.com/2014/03/04/us-prepares-1b-aid-package-for-troubled-ukraine/

[…finance minister says Ukraine needs $35 billion to get through this year and next. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-reportedly-orders-troops-near-ukraine-border-back-to-bases-after-military-exercises/]

At least Egypt gets $ 1.5 bio per annum (govt shut down or no shut down) and $1 bio debt forgiven which seems like double standards to me. And it is not like Ukraine’s gas pipelines are any less important strategically than Egypt’s ports. Or perhaps ?

Therefore, the EU package is much more hefty at EUR 11 billion that will come only in time….after it is presented to the EU leaders at their emergency meeting on Thursday. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eu-pledges-11-billion-in-aid-to-ukraine-2014-03-05-7913826

Now what will China say ?

China Says Military Will Respond to Provocations : ABC News.

Yet the general perception in the markets is that China is half heartedly supporting Putin. http://qz.com/183657/chinas-support-for-russias-ukraine-incursion-is-half-hearted-at-best/

I think China has not said anything much yet other than this translated excerpt of an excerpt of a Xinhua report.

“Rather than opposing the move, the West should “respect Russia’s unique role in mapping out the future of Ukraine.”” http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/china-backs-russia-on-ukraine/

Yes. Just as the DiaoYu islands have been part of Chinese territory for the past thousand years.

What happens this Thursday is that the EU may consider sanctions against Russia this week, and Russia may retaliate if sanctions are placed. http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/05/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tensions/index.html

Then China may take a stand depending on how bad Obama will look again, after Syria – where the fighting and alleged atrocities are flourishing, thanks to Obama.

I am hearing that the rally we have had in the past 2 days is timed with luck for certain folks to exit. The VIX index has been pulverised and it is not even earnings season or the Non Farm payrolls (due this Friday).

VIX UKRAINE

And, if that is not compelling enough, the Citi Economic Surprise Index is lowest in 9 months indicating that economic data has been disappointing.

Plotted against the S&P 500, it looks like a sick joke and we still have about a month to April Fool’s.

CESIUSD VS S&P 500 INDEX

That is YOLO trading for you. https://tradehaven.net/market/trading-like-yolo/