Ad Hoc Commentary – East Ukraine, the pride of Russia
Now that Ukraine is going into civil war, the West should remember that Kiev is the first capital of Kievan Rus, the forerunner of the Russian Empire. Even Nina Khrushchev, the granddaughter of Nikita Khrushchev, recently wrote in a Reuters blog an article entitled, “For Moscow, Ukraine is always Little Russia”:
Kiev, in Eastern Ukraine is perhaps to Russia what Philadelphia is to America. So, the Americans and the Europeans should be very careful when dealing with Ukraine. Kiev with her Golden Gate is the pride of Russia. The recent Syria standoff was about money – the potential Saudi pipeline competing with Russia. The current Ukraine situation is all about pride.
As long as the Sochi Olympics is going on, Putin will be playing Mr Congeniality. But the Olympics will end this Sunday and we will likely see Russia giving full attention to Kiev. Since Putin is unlikely to step back on the historical city of Kiev, and America is unlikely to sit quietly by the side lines, the best solution is for a split.
Stratfor contributed a piece to Forbes recently noting that Lviv on West Ukraine wants to declare independence from Ukraine:
The best is for Ukraine to split into East and West so that both America and Russia can walk off with their pride intact. This is not the peaceful 2004 Orange Revolution. This revolution should be called the ‘Red Revolution’ of 2014 given the bloodshed. The Cold War will return in full if Ukraine is not handled with the recognition that Kiev is the pride of Russia.
Good luck in the markets.