Bonds In Conversation : Run For Your Lives Asia
No, it is not this photo of Tandoori chicken and what appears to be rice atop a pizza that is scaring me, basking in all its double carbs glory.
Neither is it the rumour that a prominent local travel agent, 5 Star Tours, has closed down with her 7 branches !
http://wanbao.omy.sg/local/story20140108-20205
My double carbs fanatic friend (who happens to be partial to chicken rice on baguette) has informed me that the first run for Singapore in 2014 is the RUN FOR YOUR LIVES run, happening this Saturday, as a part of the Run For Your Lives (chased by zombies)- Asia series. http://runforyourlivesasia.com/latest-news/
Ominous sounding sort of run to ring in the new year.
Yes. Run for your lives for it’s the US Non Farm Payrolls tonight.
1. The Fed has gone bonkers in chicken and duck talk.
Headlines
Plosser Warns Fed Shouldn’t Try To Offset Potential GDP Loss
Rosengren Says Fed Needs To Be Patient In Removing Stimulus
Dudley Says Fed Doesn’t Fully Understand How QE Works
2. Greece is looking to sell bonds again, after Ireland and Portugal managed successful issues in the wake of the ECB meeting that hinted at potential easing in the future.
3. More Warnings on China’s Debt Problem
George Soros warns that China will come to a head in the next few years when its debt and economy runs out of steam. http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/george-soros-maps-the-terrain-of-a-global-economy-that-is-increasingly-shaped-by-china
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-08/did-soros-just-predict-a-china-crash-.html
Haitong Brokerage
” Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — China’s second-biggest brokerage said record debt threatens to trigger a financial crisis as borrowing costs jump to unprecedented highs despite a cooling economy.
Liabilities at non-financial companies may rise to more than 150 percent of gross domestic product in 2014, raising
default risks, according to Haitong Securities Co. The ratio of 139 percent at the end of 2012 was already the highest among the world’s 10 biggest economies, according to the most recent data. That compares with 108 percent in France, 103 percent in Japan and 78 percent in the U.S., figures from the Bank for International Settlements and the World Bank show.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-08/crisis-risk-flagged-by-haitong-as-debt-snowballs-china-credit.html
EM crisis no more as Philippines, Sri Lanka and Indonesia load up on USD borrowings, with the Philippines using part of the proceeds to buy back older issues leading to an order book in excess of 7 bio given that they have not issued since 2012.
Singapore is quiet for the first trading week of the year. Only a SGD 10 mio private placement has been reported so far.
I am not sure if we should be cheering for 2 potential new issues out of Golden Agri and Croesus reits. Will update on details once available. And of course, Temasek retail bonds would be much sought after after the announcement of their plans to for a retail offering on the 8th. This is a long awaited deal since their CFO mentioned their intention in the forum pages of papers in 2011.
Leaving now for school run and an apology for the inconsistency in the past weeks. Now that school has started, we should settle to a new routine and more prices and posts to come.
2012 SGD Bonds with Olam prices updated. It was no mean feat because the bond is not trading much, not many banks are quoting it and many price sources are not updated. But we got a pretty accurate price for you for both the Olam 6% and the Olam perp. Hope it is of use !
2013 SGD Bonds
USD Bonds listed in SGX and HK
“The first run of the year is the run for lives”. LOL. Yeah, There are so many runs nowadays.
It is Run For Your Lives Asia.
But if you add a comma, it becomes Run For Your Lives, Asia. Like some weird sort of omen.
Thanks again Tradehaven,
Looking at some Perps……………
1. I don’t know if it helps ….. but I was quoted S$ 87.5 to take my Olam S$ Perp holding off my hands yesterday. That was the best bid price I could get. So I’m holding on. Even the Perp isn’t trading much these days – I note what you say about the illiquidity of the defined tenor Olam stuff.
2. I note Ezra’s S$ perp has done quite well recently. Yesterday I was quoted a bid of S$ 97.5. That’s up from the (very) low 90’s only a few months ago. This despite “iffy” (IMHO) corporate financial results announced this last week – they eeked out a tiny profit.
3. Ezion’s S$ Perp continues to excel, IMHO. Trading comfortable above par – now at S$ 102.0. I like Ezion’s business model and their focus. I’ll be hanging onto this one – but as things stand today, I bet this paper will be called in September 2015.
4. But my Perpetual dogs (apart from the Olam Perp!): Cheung Kong’s S$ 5.125% and Genting’s S$ 5.125% are still both languishing in the low and mid S$ 90’s respectively. Ugh! I read the interchange you had this week regarding CK’s US$ and S$ Perps with more than passing interest.
5. And I’m hopeful that my Cheung Kong Infrastructure US$ 7% Perp will be called end next month. The development of the price in the market seems to imply it will be. Been a rather reliable fuss-free piece of paper this one.
Not all Perps are bad. But with all the Senior Management exit’s at Hyflux, maybe its time to realise some profits by selling their 6% S$ Perp – at a price in the high S$ 107’s me thinks so! But I’m first going to see the reaction in the coming couple of days to yesterday’s so-so US Labour numbers – I sense this will mean Ms Yellen will not be tapering so aggressively or so quickly………. which surely can only be good news for perps near term?? Always the optimist.
Thanks again Tradehaven.
Hi Tradehaven
Thank you so much once again for the bond prices of the 2012 and 2013 issues. Finally there are quotes for the Olam 2022 paper. May I ask, do you have any idea how much is the other Olam 6% 2018 paper trading now? Thank you so much sir.
Sorry. It seems I forgot to upload the USD bond prices last week.
Just updated the post. Thanks for the reminder.