The Odds Of Snow In Egypt, DecTaper and A Taxi Giving Way

What are the odds of a traffic jam at the airport at 1 am in the morning ?Just about as good as the odds of a taxi giving way to you.
That is probably just about as good as the odds of it snowing in Egypt, for the first time in 112 years.
And that is about the same as the odds of an ordinary man on the street to be able to get away with murder with the escape clause of “Affluenza” which is the latest social debate.

I wonder if the little Chinese girl who kicked and slammed the baby in the lift before throwing him to his death will use the same plea ?

I ran into a jam at the airport at 1 am this morning, taxis galore, in all 3 directions, and none giving way for the poor buses to turn into Terminal 2.

In a Citi poll, we have 24.3% expecting Fed to taper in December, 36.7% expecting January and 39% for March of later. Majority wins. Thus it looks like taper unlikely this time.

But we are living in very volatile times and it is showing up not just in the weather patterns. So odds are probably going to be proven wrong.

Of the people polled, 40 percent think the market will stabilize where it is now by the end of 2014, with 39 percent predicting that it will drop, but not crash. Only 14 percent believe the market will rise and 5 percent think it will crash.

The odds are that strange things will be happening sooner than later if you ask me.

You see, Fed’s hopes and dreams are going down the toilet bowl with another slap in the face today when Boeing announces a USD 10 bio share buy back right after Honeywell did their USD 5 bio buy back last week. They are supposed to be spending on capex and hiring, aren’t they ? That is according to the script for the Great Depression.

I had lunch with a think tank economist friend who heartily agreed with me that there is not a single negative report out there. And believe me, she has access to just about all of them. At the rate volumes are collapsing, many a sales guy and analyst will find themselves unable to meet their targets. Thus they have to keep the spirits up, paint pretty pictures and drum up some reasons for customers to continue ploughing themselves into the markets and re-allocating their portfolios. Yet the glaring lack of conviction, even on their own parts, is painfully clear.

She has stopped reading reports, she says. She prefers to go for economic theses now as well as economic studies out of the IMF and World Bank before she formulates her views which is laborious and an extra layer of work but she says she cannot trust much of the stuff coming out of the banks and the sell side these days. Who can blame her ?

We are biting our nails into Thursday and the FOMC announcement. The odds are that it will be a crowd pleaser. But what are the odds of a crowd pleaser announcement that may not be interpreted as one ?

I am still short the S&P 500 and one of the 5% who believes in a crash. The odds are against me but stranger things have happened.