Bonds In Conversation : The Belief System


What a week it has been – riots in Singapore, Thailand going to the polls, China’s controversial new airzone and Korea seconding the claim with their airlines complying, USDJPY at a new year high as outdoor radiation reach highest in Fukushima, US household networth at historic high and of course, Stanley Fischer for Fed vice chair.

On a humourous front, we had a fake deaf interpreter at Mandela’s funeral, Chinese news claiming that Shanghai’s smog will make them impenetrable to missiles, Nigeria managing to lose USD 50 bio in oil money, RBS wins a made up “Dumbest Bank of the Year” award and a banker from Standard bank held hostage in Mongolia because he was helping reclaim some loans.

And to top off the cake, we had China listing their “bad bank” holding all the distressed loans, Cinda, to an uproarious rally of 25%. Talk about turning junk into gems !!

Our belief systems are being challenged and hunted down to humble compliance. An interesting research I came across suggests that “advisors are too afraid to express a bearish view on the market, with many “even ignoring their own indicators.””

So we end the year with the same generic reports and outlooks from all the banks, none trying to be too controversial anymore and few mentioning much about bonds or being overly pessimistic. Afterall it is official news that the Federal Reserve now holds over 33% of all outstanding 10Y US treasuries and equivalents.

I prefer my own belief system. I like to sleep easy and I do not believe in profiting from other’s misery e.g. I will not invest in Indonesia if I do not want to live there. Pardon moi, but I just sent my maid off, have more than a handful on my plate yet feel strangely safer, gratified and will write about this over the weekend.


Till then, price levels to share (all unverified).

USD Bonds Listed in SGX and HK- poor showing for the week with a dearth in new issuance.
”     Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) — Companies in Asia outside Japan paused marketing dollar-denominated notes today as markets
quieten in the lead up to Christmas. Bond returns in the region are poised for their first annual loss in five years.
U.S.-currency securities have fallen 0.3 percent since Dec. 31, set for their first 12-month decline since 2008 when they
lost 14 percent, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show.
There haven’t been any dollar bond sales in Asia since Dec. 5, the longest lull since the five business days through to Nov.
14, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”


SGD Bonds Issued in 2013

Singapore new issues slacking into year end with optimism that slower supply will help buffer any market fall out next year caused by the Fed’s taper.


SGD Bonds Issued in 2012