Clan of the Last Bears

It is a case schizophrenia if we read what is out there.

For the ordinary investor reading bank reports, you would think 2014 will be the roaring 20’s again as a new Bonnie and Clyde miniseries premieres on History channel, or so my son informs me.

Some examples :

CITI’S BUITER: 2014 Will Be A ‘Revolutionary’ Year For The Global Economy
http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-2014-global-economic-outlook-2013-12

NOMURA: It’s The End Of The End Of The World
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-end-of-the-end-of-the-world-2013-11#ixzz2mZh8subo

MORGAN STANLEY: 4 Fundamentals Build The Foundation For US Economic Acceleration In 2014
http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-2014-us-economic-outlook-2013-12#ixzz2mZo2z6jT
On the investor side :

Unilever CEO Says Emerging Market Slowdown to Last for Years
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-02/unilever-ceo-polman-says-emerging-market-slowdown-to-last-years.html

Richemont Chairman Warns Global Economy Is “Very Precarious… There Will Be Tears”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/richemont-chairman-warns-global-economy-very-precarious-there-will-be-tears

BRIAN BELSKI: ‘We Enter 2014 Less Optimistic Than We Have In The Past Few Years’
http://www.businessinsider.com/bmo-belkski-2014-sp-500-outlook-2013-12#ixzz2mZoET6sv

What a cognitive challenge it is to circumnavigate through these headlines in your mailbox.

The last bears are capitulating. Reading through this defiant piece out of John Hussman, it does look like most of his peers, fellow hedge funders who had called for a crash mid year, are backing down and seeing that the path of least resistance is for the rally to continue.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131202.htm

Is it because we are becoming immune to bad news ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2516987/Can-make-IMMUNE-bad-moods-Regular-exposure-bad-news-makes-numb-sadness-claims-study.html

The only one still yapping on bubble as loudly as ever, on the back of his Nobel laureate status, is perhaps Robert Shiller.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/01/us-economy-shiller-idUSBRE9B009620131201?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Even then, he is not expecting an imminent crash, as is Roubini who is giving the market another 2 years now http://finance.yahoo.com/news/roubini-bubble-stocks-burst-2-174801212.html. This is not what he said in July when he blasting greedy bankers and the eurozone crisis to capitulate into a worse storm than 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/video/roubini-says-2013-storm-may-surpass-2008-crisis-HCAjTp9VTD~gm6Ux8jnQvQ.html.

The clan of the last bears is disappearing as the S&P 500 remains on pace for its best year ever since 1998. And meanwhile I am reading about this FREEDOM SHIP where the 1% richest of the world can escape to in all its grandeur and opulence and tax free status.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-02/how-1-will-escape

Thinking outside the box, it looks like we are heading into certain climax after 5 years of endless stimulus and a market full of reluctant and skeptical bulls. I don’t think we need a crystal ball to see the amount of social discontent in the world just waiting to erupt. Yet I shudder to think of the future rallies lined up just on hints of further stimulus. No logic or thought required – just pure reflex actions.

As for now, I am preparing for a sell off in the S&P in the next week. Not a big one – just 2-4%, for I do not want to be in the clan of the last bears.

This is so exciting isn’t it ?