Out of Inspiration : Follow JPM ?
Perhaps it was the solar eclipse yesterday that sapped the energy out of me. Or perhaps it had to do with my insane whopper of a bbq session last night that involved roasting an entire chicken sitting upright on a can of beer that took all my powers of maneuvering.
Feeling a bit out of wind today and listless as to the market actions because Friday saw some pretty big moves and panic buttons triggered in the currencies, gold and silver, crude oil etc.
The Divali holidays are also just as powerful in crimping market volumes as China’s 3rd plenum has the market standing on their toes.
So I am out of inspiration for the time being.
Focuses for the week is all about the most important people on the planet – Central banks ! without whom, we would not be living in the period of greatest wealth in human history.
FED SPEAK – After Bullard on Friday to douse the QE fire, Fisher, who will be voting next year, came out to fan away the steam.
– Monday – Powell (voter and dove) and Rosengren (voter and dove).
– Tuesday -Lacker (non-voter and hawk) and Williams (non-voter and dove)
– Wednesday – Pianalto (2014 voter and dove)
– Friday – Lockhart (non-voter and dove), Fischer (2014 voter and hawk), and Williams (non-voter and dove)
>> It would be very interesting to read how the market “interprets” the speeches again.
Reserve Bank of Australia
– Tomorrow. They may attempt to talk the currency down on Tuesday which is already expected by the markets although I suspect positions are still sitting long.
ECB- On Thursday. The market is generally convinced there will be an attempt to talk the currency’s strength down or even hint at rate cuts or other measures like the LTRO.
– On Thursday. Nothing is expected for the BOE and with UK’s wondrous economic data of late and the best part is that they can’t taper when everyone is easing.
Ranking from most dovish to hawkish now, according to Citi – ECB, BOJ, FED, BOE.
And of course, the penultimate number on Friday – US Non Farm Payrolls and our fates would be decided for the month. The hurdle is in the low expectations of 125k jobs after last month’s 148k which disappointed the markets. Perhaps the shutdown had something to do with it ?
It is pretty hard to make an assessment right now, I’d say. Not unless you are working at JPM where they had 3 perfect quarters this year MAKING MONEY EVERYDAY. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-01/jpmorgan-chase-traders-extend-perfect-record-into-third-quarter.html
And it looks like they will be paying off their record fines in no time unless new Justice Department probes pop up.
This week’s trade recommendations out of the various strategy pieces I have come across.
EURUSD – Sell into strength especially if Draghi disappoints by doing nothing.
EURGBP – Sell, sell, sell.
AUDUSD – Sell, if anything.
USDJPY – Fighting with the EUR for most traded pair. Still a buy but 0.99 will be a big option hurdle.
GBPUSD – A toss up. Short sterling is coming off in a hurry as I type.
I won’t be too bullish stocks, not with China still in the way the entire week and new developments daily. Bill Gross is joining the bear camp with the a blunt “Investors in the U.S. and elsewhere must look for investment in the real economy, not share buy-back maneuvers that artificially elevate stock prices.” point in his latest monthly outlook. http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Scrooge-McDucks.aspx
And I won’t be too hard on myself. It is only Monday and it is good to square out on this lack of inspiration and read what JPM has to say.