SGDMYR : Sell On Strength
Yesterday’s UMNO elections sealed the politcal fate of Malaysia for the next 4 years and there shall be peace.
On the 25th, we will have PM Najib in Malaysia unveiling his 2014 budget which is widely expected to be reformist in nature, curbing the country’s deficit.
Expectations
- Consumption tax
- Property gains tax
- Delay of government projects
SGDMYR gained to 2.5518 today after falling to a low 2.5329 last Thursday, post the end of the US shutdown. The 3 month low is 2.5046 and 1 month low 2.5277.
It does look like we are not going anywhere higher from here especially if the Budget delivers.
2.53 is the support and at 2.55 we are at the edge of the Ichimoku cloud’s lower band. It does look like we should be looking to target the 200 day moving average of 2.5 if the budget goes down well.
Meanwhile Iskandar is racing along.
Oct. 17 (Straits Times) — A LISTED firm that makes plastic
moulds is undertaking a reverse takeover that will transform it
into a property developer with interests in Iskandar.
Jubilee Industries Holdings said yesterday that it plans to
acquire a 60 per cent stake in a development project in Medini
Iskandar largely owned by a unit of Jewelstone Properties.
All the more reason for SGDMYR to give up some ground.
Strange isn’t it… wouldn’t these reforms slow the economy? I don’t exactly see these reforms as something to be excited about, in the long run.
Reforms are usually currency positive. Lower deficit = stronger currency.
Unfortunately, given Malaysia’s track record, reduced subsidies = lower deficit will be more than offset by Supplementary Budgets…..haha
It is the JP Morgan style. Just use the headline. Supplementary budget is below the line.