GBP/SGD AUD/SGD AND SGD/MYR
GBP/SGD (SPOT RATE 2.0079)
– has been on a marathon since July and traded at a 1 year high of 2.0238 yesterday.
– looks like it would gradually edge higher from here towards 2.05 in the next 6 weeks and we should consider buying at 1.98-1.99 which should be the support.
1 month SGD dual currency deposit/investment against GBP deliverable at
GBPSGD 1.98 : 2.5%
GBPSGD 1.985 : 3.3%
GBPSGD 1.99 : 4.18%
AUD/SGD (SPOT RATE 1.1758)
– 5 Aug year low of 1.1257 and has retraced off a double bottom chart to 1.1755 today.
– I notice a similarity between the AUDSGD chart now and in 2010 when it had a similar double bottom off the low then of 1.13 as well. The climb up was not easy.
1 month SGD dual currency deposit/investment against AUD deliverable at
AUDSGD 1.15 : 4.42%
AUDSGD 1.145 : 3.3%
AUDSGD 1.14 : 2.48%
SGD/MYR (SPOT RATE 2.5767)
– the magnitude of the move in the past 4 months escaped me till I viewed it in the context of the past 5 years.
– somehow the recent headlines on recently elected government’s economic plans just stopped short of accusing the leaders on a severe backtrack on their election campaign promises of a more racially equitable economy.
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/few-plans-another-plan-bumiputeras-090032335.html
– do not think Iskandar prices are going anywhere anytime soon.
– SGDMYR remains a buy in the near term at 2.50.
Qualifier : The rates mentioned above are not verified and not what any bank offers. They are priced off the writer’s own model using approximate market vols and does not include the margins that banks typically charge customers for execution.
GOING FORWARD, I WILL BE PUTTING THESE DAILY RATES UP FOR REFERENCE ON THE FORUM PAGE.
hi tradehaven, thanks for AUD/SGD views, I see an inverted H&S formation with technical target of 1.2247 🙂
That may take a few weeks/months.
AUDSGD broke the Ichimoku upper bound already. We could see 1.16 handle first, I suspect, then 1.1945 thereabouts.
Hi tradehaven,
thanks for this wonderful blog. Very informative from a neutral standpoint (considering that markets cheer when QE gets extended)…
Can you share your views on INR movement in the next 3-6 months. Considering that elections are due in Apr 2014, Fed tapering and the volatility in the currency movements and its side effects (http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/another-currency-crisis-waiting-to-happen-mahesh-natani/article5126586.ece).
Cheers, have a great day!!!
Sorry, I just saw this.
I am not an INR expert but I can say for sure that the new charismatic central bank chief, Raghuram Rajan, is quite a forward thinker with the surprise rate move we had on Friday.
There is still so much more to do before he gets caught up with the bureaucracy and despairs at the political situation.
A good Indian friend once told me that India is like a crab in a basket of crabs, they can never escape because they will be pulled down by the rest.
The good thing is that we have Japan now for FDIs and this mini crisis has been remarkable in pushing forward the reforms.
“13 Sept MUMBAI (Reuters) – Foreign investors will be able to buy government debt securities without having to bid for a quota, market regulator SEBI said on Friday.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) would have the option to buy debt securities on-tap, until 90 percent of the total available limit of $25 billion of government debt is reached.”
I say India has found some room to breathe in the next 3-6 months (USDINR friendly). And India will be a long term hold for the world’s faith in their place amongst the BRICS and I hope the new government can somewhat pull an effort to mirror China’s determination to overhaul the bureaucracy and corruption at last.
Risks : Politics eg. more political kidnappings etc, unrest (so far, no social unrest like in Turkey and Brazil), or massive power outages like last year’s.
Hi buddy,
Thanks for your views. It is always a delight to read your views.
Cheers and have a great day!!!