Singapore Update

By Sharon Chen
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) — GDP growth forecast at 4% Y/y this
quarter, according to median of 19 economists and analysts in
Monetary Authority of Singapore’s Sept. quarterly survey.
• Economists in June survey predicted GDP growth of 3.5% for 3Q, and 2.3% for 2013
• Economy may grow 3.5% in 2014: survey
• Inflation will probably be 2.5% in 2013, 2.9% in 2014: survey
• Singapore dollar will be at S$1.27 per USD by end-2013; economists in June survey predicted S$1.25 per USD
• Unemployment rate may be 2% at year-end: survey
• Non-oil domestic exports may fall 0.5% in 2013: survey
• NOTE: MAS stuck to a policy of allowing gradual gains in currency in April
• NOTE: Govt forecasts GDP growth of 2.5%-3.5% in 2013
• NOTE: Central bank forecasts inflation of 2%-3% in 2013


“Singapore, resilient so far to the turmoil that has swept emerging markets, appears to be one of the most financially vulnerable countries in Asia, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) said in a note on Monday.

Singapore, India and Malaysia have the poorest scores among major Asian markets excluding Japan, based on 10 factors used to measure financial vulnerability, the report said. Those factors include excessive real credit growth, the gap between credit and economic growth, the returns on financial stocks and the state of the current account.”

Singapore ‘risks being Asean’s slowest growing country’:

By Tham Yuen-c
Sept. 5 (Straits Times) — Faced with a low replacement rate
and a fast-ageing population, Singapore risks becoming in future
the slowest growing country in the world’s fastest growing
region, said Law Minister K. Shanmugam on Wednesday night.
Speaking to some 300 students at the Singapore Management
University Ministerial Forum, he painted a stark picture of how
demographic trends combined with rising costs and external
competition could cause Singapore to fall behind its neighbours
in Asean.

Credit Suisse has an interesting report Asia Stress : A Health Check.

Currency perspectives.

And another one on household debt.


And a chart on corporate debt to GDP which hints at a deadly combo, and makes Singapore’s problems seem pretty much similar to the rest.


I do not think they dare suggest anything ominous but it hints at dangerous territory for us as we head into Oct MPS and 1.29 looking more likely than not, in the weeks ahead.