USDSGD – The CPI Inflexion Point

SINGAPORE JULY CPI 1.9% YoY vs expected 2.1%.
SINGAPORE JULY CPI 0.3% MoM vs expected 0.6%.

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) — Gains in food and transportation
costs contributed to quicker inflation, Statistics Department
said in report today.
• Inflation was 0.3% M/m in July, median est. 0.6%
• Core inflation was 1.6% in July Y/y
• NOTE: Consumer prices rose 1.8% Y/y in June

MAS cut the 2013 inflation forecast to 2-3% from their initial forecast of 3-4% in July.

My initial idea was to plot the crime rate against the USDSGD for fun but I could not find a data source.

Aug. 23 (Straits Times) — Singapore’s overall crime rate
fell by 6.3 per cent from January to June this year, compared to
the same period last year, said the Singapore Police Force in its
half-yearly crime report.

So here is the CPI vs the USDSGD instead.


We can see that the lines crossed before USDSGD did the huge plunge in 2010. Before that we had the monetary easing during the Lehman crisis that led to the big spike in USDSGD to 1.55 before coming down to the low in 2011 when SOR turned negative.

We appear to be an inflexion point of sorts now as the CPI drifts lower, could we see the pair cross in the coming months ?