3 weeks of straight ups right under our noses and we have BOJ on Thursday. If the past 3 meetings were anything to go by, we should see a DOWN move.
Yet expectations going into this BOJ meeting are not wildly euphoric and most expect an unchanged policy without any fireworks.
The weekly chart showing a cute little doji so far. Very undecided markets.
I think best to go into Thursday flat and look to buy the dip.
Whether it happens or not, the analysts and economists are looking to earn their keeps and spinning a new story and like all stories, no one likes to be the bearer of bad news.
“given the recent development of the oil and commodity markets the core CPI, which just excludes fresh foods whereas includes energy in Japan, is expected to struggle to rise from this September. They point a risk of this to result in a downgrade of the bank’s inflation outlook in the future. They also believe when the core CPI becomes sure to remain below 0.7% in FY2013, the Japanese central bank will be forced to implement additional easing, in particular to increase risk asset purchase such as ETFs. This will possibly come in the first quarter of the next year, or in the fourth quarter this year at earliest, they expect.” taken from Citi FX.
Reading the above sounds so much more palatable than just saying outright that they are quite screwed isn’t it ?