MayDay MayDay, It’s May Day
Mayday is an emergency procedure word used internationally as a distress signal in voice procedure radio communications. It derives from the French venez m’aider, meaning “come help me“. Source : Wikipedia
I am supposing quite a few people have missed out on the phenomenal equity story that has the indices busting historic highs yet these people have been aptly compensated in a equally impressive bond and credit market rally that has run out of the usual junk and is now running to Rwanda to save them.
Yesterday, 30 April would go down in history as the day the largest corporate bond issue was priced for Apple Inc at USD 17 bio when the Dow made a historic high too with the S&P 500 posting a straight 6th month of gains !
The month of April has been a wild ride that rejects the logic of any form of analyses which would have all been but pointless. Between the JPY, Platinum, Gold, Palladium and Silver, we see losses of 4.14 to 13.38% against the USD. The Boston marathon bombing which led to further stock market rally, bird flu that barely scratched China’s Shcomp while economic data disappointed, mostly with only US housing and the US consumer looking up.
May will be a month of reckoning, I reckon, kicking off with the FOMC monthly interest rate decision.
“Market participants will be listening closely for any acknowledgment of the recent slowdown in U.S. economic indicators, especially those that track inflation, which by various measures has been falling in recent months.” Business Insider.
Are we not at record highs in the Dow ? Ironic indeed.
Where is the growth coming from when Apple is returning cash to shareholders ? Amex following suit, banks like ANZ hiking dividends ?It is plainly clear that there is no growth to pursue.
Equity buying on the back of cash hoards, dividends and takeover stories, bond issuance to finance that, and bond buying frenzy because BoJ will now takeover the QE until the ECB and BoE step in too. Bubbling away.
I would approach the month of May with caution, elections coming up in nearby Malaysia, Philippines mid term senate elections and Pakistan… and Bulgaria too ?
A ring of fire solar eclipse to come on the 10th of May.
Till now, I have not been taking the driver’s seat because it is all too frazzled and even our friend, Asianmacro informed me he is waving the white flag.
“No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. …….any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.” Taken from Meditation #17 By John Donne, 1623
Time to take cover and cast out the safety nets. No time for heroics just because I missed the record highs.
Buying some USD is an excellent idea, especially against SGD. Be saying no more Reits for me, hedging for inflation with soft commodities, hedging for anarchy with a bit of Gold.
Happy May Day !