SGD Rates and Bonds Weekly
Mar Electronic Exports -17.9% YoY versus exp -6.8%
Mar Non Oil Domestic Exports -4.8% YoY versus exp -5.4%
Mar Non Oil Domestic Exports 8% MoM versus exp +4.4%
Mar CPI +3.5% YoY versus exp +3.6%
Mar CPI -0.5% MoM versus exp -0.3%
Little in the form of local market development. Rates meandering along with the UST as global jitters continue into the week. USD/SGD holding the fort, in a 1 pt range – 1.2317-1.2417 the entire time.
Flows continue to tend to selling against weak bids. Local bank led the way in the 5Y irs and basis swaps but the lack of bids prevented prices from sliding further. Offers also seen on the back of potential new corporate issuances.
The short end remains the key and the benign CPI number and trade numbers will start to filter through in the fx market and we should see USD/SGD trade higher in the current environment. That said, the fwds may not be in a hurry to move to the RHS as yet with global uncertainties ensuring that the authorities will keep the short end flushed. Keeping to last week’s call to keep short end paid to hedge even risks while the other tenors will not be going anywhere for now.
Bonds had rallied ahead and sold off as the inflows did not materialise. Prices weakened throughout the week, only to rally slightly today as the market stopped holding out for the BoJ tsunami to hit the shores.
Bond swap spreads in their single digits to their teens now for the >10Y issues where most of the buying has been concentrated today. Volumes have been thin on lack of interest in SGS despite the rally in neighbouring markets and would expect to remain that way.
Bond swap spreads at single digits has always been the signal to pick up and the market certainly seem to be catching on that scent. Given the new issue inflows in the irs will cause banks to be paid, there is a likely chance that they will hedge those with bonds especially when the market is short of bids on the rates side.
Hearing Tata Steel 10Y SGD ~ rec basis swap