The EUR/AUD FX Cross & VXO warning bells are ringing
Illustration 1: EUR/AUD FX cross exhibit high correlation & R-square with VXO … predictive ability of unknown stresses ahead in financial markets when both head higher?
There are a number of price movements of various financial instruments that Asianmacro had observed before that I simply do not have a logical explanation that satisfy either a scientific mathematical finance approach or a qualitative explanation. Perhaps I do not have the eloquence nor knowledge of those strategists or economists in coming up with convincing arguments for everything that happens since my pursuit is simply on whether to buy, sell or hold in making profits as the sole objective.
One phenomena that I chanced upon is the propensity for the EUR/AUD FX cross together with VXO (http://www.cboe.com/micro/vxo/) to always head higher when markets enter into some period of uncertainty especially when negative events start to occur or potentially develop further in the financial markets.
Illustration 2: EUR/AUD FX cross heads higher post Gold collapse since 12 April 2013 & Boston bombings …. sign of potential further negatives ahead to develop in markets?
I will be very cautious and on a somewhat ”sell risk on rally” mode across various asset classes especially in stocks and commodities as this unexplained EUR/AUD & VXO indicator is flashing on my radar screen. Whether it is due to AUD/USD coming off and under pressure due to poor China economic data (http://www.scmp.com/business/money/markets-investing/article/1215611/investors-dump-stocks-poor-china-economic-data) …. or EUR/USD heading higher … damn how can that be with uncertainty in EU still smarting from Greece, Cyprus, …… ? It does not matter really … I rather be lucky than smart!
*Asianmacro is a beach bum managing his own wealth. Besides deciding what to have for lunch (or hitting the gym sometimes), he is mostly found listening to loud music while trading and investing for himself. While every care has been taken in preparing the information in and/or materials, such information and materials are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding accuracy or fitness for a purpose is given in connection with such information and materials. The opinions expressed do not constitute investment advice and independent advice should be sought where appropriate. In no event will Asianmacro be liable to you for any direct or indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials attached herewith. Asianmacro may already have or intend to have a trading or investment position in the financial instruments or products referred to in this communication. This is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument and Asianmacro may also have interests different from or adverse to your interests.