1Q13 GDP -1.4% QoQ versus expected +1.7%
1Q13 GDP -0.6% YoY versus expected 0%
Feb Retail Sales ex auto +10% YoY versus expected +4%
Feb Retail Sales -2.7% YoY versus expected -3.5%
The monetary policy statement came and went and USD/SGD again in an amazingly tight range of 1.2350 – 1.2427. The 6M SOR held steady between 0.38242 -0.41119.
No moving SGD rates in a quiet week of trading, the only tenors of interest are the 3-5Y which came under selling out of local banks, yet again, against the steepener pay flows on supposed hedge fund activity. Volumes relatively light without much challenge to the mid week selling activity and market died down to a hush in the past 2 days with the gold rout.
Another week and yet another can of worms. Tying in with the MPS, rates should continue in free fall mode except that there are no bids to catch be it for a lack of trading interest or traders. Considering that most of the rates are now at support levels before the next break down to last year’s historical lows, it should that the USD/SGD and SGD fwds to dictate the next move. Suggest small paids in the short end to hedge event risks, the other tenors are not going anywhere for now.
Bonds rallied hard the week before on BoJ and said nothing to the MAS MPS.
Slow markets without much activity on the week with small profit taking selling along the way. With yields treading near their historic lows, the only bonds left with some meat would be the 20Y and 30Y, at 2.14% and 2.56% (historic low 1.91% and 2.25%).
A trader likened it to squeezing water out of stone. After the bull flattening over the past 2 weeks with yields down 7 to 26 bp, the market is heading to take a breather for the time being.
CWT 6Y 3.9% SGD 100 mio SOR +290 bp. ~ swap neutral
HPL 7Y 3.9% SGD 50 mio SOR +265 bp. ~ swap neutral
- What A Safe Monetary Policy Statement ! (tradehaven.me)