USDJPY was my trade of the year last year into this. Not boasting about the peanuts it made me but the sense of sweeping gratification when it finally did make its move.
Thus it feels unreal to be writing this and a small betrayal to my ultimate price target of 103.
The upmove has been swift, Ichimoku rendered useless these days.
So I went back to good old Fibonacci, who always has something to say, and picked the 10 year top of 124.14.
Not the purist, as always, in these matters which will probably attract a scornful snigger from the Retired Trader, I am guessing a ripe retracement coming up. Yes, yes. I could have said this last week or the the week before.
But I am saying it now because everything else has hit exhaustion point and we are starting to see that after 3 months of talk, nothing much has really improved. An economist explained it nicely today at a conference. Many Jap export companies have switched to JPY payments so only about 60% of exporters benefit from JPY weakness. But since the tsunami, the country has become even more dependent on imported fuel which makes 100% of companies suffer.
Shirakawa is stepping down on 19 Mar. Kuroda promises swift action.
I think we have about a week to play this. Trade target 91.50-92.00. Stop loss 97.25-50.