Wrestling With A Widow Maker – EUR/JPY

I cannot fathom for the life of me why presumably intelligent, sane and reasonable people like me would want to trade the EUR/JPY ?

Perhaps its just the long standing grudge against the fx traders who are often the loudest and rowdiest of the lot while bond and rates traders are the limpy ones and not to mention the credit traders who mostly, do not look like traders.

I know many an ex bouncer, teacher, bank teller, drummer of a rock band etc,  who became successful fx traders in their time. So why couldn’t I be one ?

Because, Retired Trader says too many people are fixated with reversal patterns.

90% of technical analysis books only emphasise on reversal patterns but preach TRADING THE TREND ! It is human nature to look at the peaks and troughs and our attention is trained to focus on them resulting in missing the continuation pattern.

No thanks to charts, I got the USDJPY right last year. All the way from 78 to 83 and 87. Because I was too early, I was tired emotionally and mentally by the time my first target of 83 was hit and took profit when I had further targets of 93 and 103 ahead. It was the same with Crude years back, when I managed to catch 125 and then 140. I was too mentally fraught to ride it back to 80 in 12 mths and instead closed out at 120.

I am an amateur, as Retired Trader says.  People who try and catch reversals are fodder for the ex bouncers sitting in the Canary Wharf offices.

Now I have been short EURJPY since last week at this level and I am getting tired. Counting the Demark candles and consulting the almanac for the full moon (which will come only on the 25th).

I will stick to the 127 stop, will not add on. Still target a 5 pt correction.



Just read that LV is hiking prices like crazy in Japan now. By some 12% (Abe’s inflation target is 2% ??). I wonder what they were thinking when EURJPY was 170 5 years ago ? Who knows ? Ex bouncers certainly do not care !