Retired Trader Says Watch the Mega Moves Coming
The overstretching of the fx markets in the month of Jan has left the world now vulnerable to a mega move.
That EURJPY has appreciated 10% in the month of January is surely not a feat for the faint hearted and there are many a heart burnt soul out there whom I can potentially empathise with for I have initially long the EURJPY move but faded it too early.
Table of Changes from 3 Jan 2013.
| EUR | 4.02% |
| JPY | 6.06% |
| AUD | -0.95% |
| GBP | -1.90% |
| CHF | -1.46% |
| SGD | 1.57% |
| CNY | -0.14% |
| KRW | 3.15% |
| MYR | 2.70% |
| TWD | 2.10% |
| THB | -1.71% |
| INR | -2.35% |
| IDR | 1.00% |
| EURJPY | 10.32% |
| EURAUD | 5.02% |
| XAU | -1.05% |
| XAG | 1.61% |
So I called the former trader chap and asked for wisdom for I am suffering from mild concussion.
He says this.
50-50 chance now for trades.
* USDJPY setting up for strong move, either up or down 150-200 pips before week close.
* USDSGD stay long. 1.2822 by May.
* AUDUSD stay short.
* 10Y UST stay short.
And I am thoroughly disgusted by the reckless behaviour I am witnessing right now. People tripling up on their USDJPY, turning long now for 3-4 times their usual size because they were wrong.
That certainly warrants mega moves.