2012 Ends On A Strange New High
Excuse me for my slowness. I have been off radar for 2 weeks and I come back to a different reality.
10 days ago, we had the Japanese elections, the fiscal cliff deadline, every country revising their 2013 GDP outlook downwards, China going for austerity, the usual Eurozone splits ….
Nothing has changed except that the world did not end on the 21 Dec, Nikkei is up 12%, Shanghai Comp even more at 13%, Silver is down 10%, USDJPY up 5% and APPLE stopped crashing.
I do not know what I have missed here and it looks like Mr Market’s got a new management team. The pros tell me I got it wrong so I think I better sit out this year end and I am seeing things in the continuous cluster of white candles (UP) on my charts and noticing that the bushes around the ash trays downstairs have doubled in size overnight, sprouting a serious number of green shoots, no doubt because of the heavy rains.
Just looking at everything around me and permeated in confusion.
Asia is doing great except for Indonesia and Sri Lanka. Commodities doing well except for Gold and Silver. China is going on austerity which is bad news for the world.
Honestly, I am such a lousy trader because I am discretionary, as I have been told today without been chastised.
So what did I do ?
I looked at the EUR/USD chart again. Some say reverse head and shoulders but I squint a little and I saw it !!!
DOUBLE TOP !!! Short and target 1.3080.
There goes and have a great weekend !!
And Olam bond prices for the followers.
|OLAMSP 6 10/25/22||SGD||90.44|
|OLAMSP 5 3/4 09/20/17||USD||93.71|
|OLAMSP 2 1/2 09/06/13||SGD||97.12|
|OLAMSP 5.8 07/17/19||SGD||90.85|
|OLAMSP 7 09/29/49||SGD||85.01|
|OLAMSP 6 08/10/18||SGD||92.05|
|OLAMSP 3 02/25/13||SGD||99.24|
|OLAMSP 7 1/2 08/12/20||USD||95.20|
|OLAMSP 4.07 02/12/13||SGD||99.43|
Thank you for sharing with everyone another post and the updated Olam bonds information.
I understand Temasek has increased its stake in Olam from 16 to 17 to 18 and finally 19% today over the last few weeks. The major shareholder has 20% of the shares. May I ask, are there any significant implications of such an increase in stake?
If Temasek becomes the major share holder instead by increasing its stake to >20%, does it mean that the management will change and hence Temasek wont want to increase the stake to >20%? If Temasek wish to privatise Olam, does it have to declare it intend to do so explicitly or it can simply continue buying till at a signifcant point of time then declare privatisation? I know nuts about the regulations behind privatisation or share buying by a significant holder 🙁 Would be grateful if someone can enlighten me.
Hey… I am not an equity expert but does 20% mean anything ?
The Kewalram family owns >20% but don’t see anything happening there.
I believe Temasek has an investment time frame of 30 years to fall back upon for most of their investments. haha, pardon me (occupational hazard).
Let me try and get more info for you in the meantime.
Good luck !
Thank you so much for sharing again. Sorry to be troubling you with this. I am basically just wondering how will the Olam bond prices be affected as Temasek increase its stake in Olam. Also wondering if its likely Temasek step up its stake further. I am praying for its bond price to look more “normal” soon 🙂
May I wish Sir have a fruitful and prosperous year ahead.
It has been a really strange end to the year…. Most of my banker friends have hit their annual target by Oct and has been telling their clients to keep their “bullet” for 2013. So who is pushing the market higher and higher for the last few weeks? It’s amazing to hear my buddy (private banker) telling his clients not to do any investment for the last 2 weeks because he and I are playing golf enjoying our annual golf holidays.
I will expect the rally to last for another 2 / 3 weeks unless Obama really screwed it up. I’m still bullish on the china market, probably another 5 to 10 % before I take profit and have a stress free CNY.
Happy new year to all in advance. Especially tradeheaven for your insightful and sometimes humorous post. Thumbs up 好！
That’s right !!
It won’t get much better, friend.
I did Gold accumulator for fun. Not bad at 1575 strike.
Take it as it comes.