Bonds In Conversation : Trials & Tributes
There were 2 people in my life who had shaped me to become me today. I would not recommend either of them to anyone but I want to pay tribute to the both of them today because they are both gone from this earth now.
One of them was my mother and the other, my ex boss. Life with them would make the Survivor TV series child’s play, but looking back now, I would not have missed a single moment of it.
Alright. It has resulted in me being a big time softie with all people who have worked with and under me for all time. For that, I apologise to them that I could not have been harsher and more demanding, to bring out the best of their mettle. I just do not have the resolve.
These 2 women passed off this year. My mom earlier in May, and my ex boss, just 3 days ago. The world has suffered grave loss and the universe, as I know it, will never be the same.
You see, the spirit of the risk taker is not something acquired from a guidebook or an instructive course. It is a cumulation of meditative calm and carefully honed acumen that comes with deep intuition that in turn comes from life’s knocks and pitfalls.
It is a disgrace that I have turned out this way then so lets change the topic to bonds, where I am here to provide a small helping hand with, as I would like to think I am.
Olam is, for now, safely ensconced under Temasek’s protective umbrella at least, till the execution of their new bond/warrant issue scheduled for February 2013. Prices are well off their lows while the stock price closed at a new 3 year low of 1.405 on 14th Dec.
| BID | OFFER | LOW | ||
| OLAMSP 6 10/25/22 | SGD | 85 | 87 | 82 |
| OLAMSP 5 3/4 09/20/17 | USD | 92 | 93.25 | 84 |
| OLAMSP 2 1/2 09/06/13 | SGD | 95.5 | 97 | 96.35 |
| OLAMSP 5.8 07/17/19 | SGD | 87.5 | 89.5 | 82.35 |
| OLAMSP 7 09/29/49 | SGD | 82 | 85 | 75.5 |
| OLAMSP 6 08/10/18 | SGD | 89.5 | 91.5 | 87.7 |
| OLAMSP 3 02/25/13 | SGD | 98.5 | 100 | 97.65 |
| OLAMSP 7 1/2 08/12/20 | USD | 88 | 90 | 84.35 |
| OLAMSP 4.07 02/12/13 | SGD | 98.5 | 100 | 98.5 |
Qualifer : I cannot verify the lows dealt or the bid and offers.
This week has been an eventful week. We saw APPLE shares at new lows not seen since Feb this year while China drags her peripheral stock markets up (Australia and Hong Kong). FOMC delivered on extending Operation Twist (or whatever they are calling it now). Eurozone outlook for 2013 turning quite grim but masked by the Greece bailout approval. UBS cut their CHF deposit rate to -1% effectively killing the safe haven players. Japan is having their elections tomorrow. And the Mayan apocalypse is less than a week away on 21 Dec which also happens to be the fiscal cliff’s deadline.
There is an undercurrent here. Look out for our 2013 Interest Rate Outlook.
Meanwhile, here is a table of this year’s major issues. With the US Treasury sell off, most prices are not holding up too well.
Hearing more China/HKG issuers to kick start the new year in the SGD space
Hi tradehaven
Thank you for your regular post and updates. You are certainly lending a great helping hand to everyone.
May I seek some advice regarding MacqIntInfra? I learn that it is winding down and be delisted soon. The company seems to worth around the same or a little more than what the share price reflects now. Before the company winds down totally, I have the impression that shareholders will still get the interest of around 6 or 7%. Wondering if it is advisable to go in now and treat it as a so-called 1 year or short term “bond” since shareholder can probably get back what they invest in the share price and still get the interest before they totally wind down. Wondering if there are other risk involved in doing so. Thank you so much again.
Yipppeee !!!
Thank you, Nigel ! And your eternal perseverance then !! And I will hold on to the end. (Qualifier : I only have about 100k shares or so worth of this stock which has been giving me decent 10% (or more) returns for a long time)
Yes, I totally agree that this company has been, 90% of the time, undervalued to their underlying. The good and bad thing about Singapore investors – totally blind to the name Capital or Raffles ?, and as such, giving “nameless” companies a chance.
I am in the midst of writing a 2013 view which is controversial to the least, and radical to most.
2013 is a time to be smart.
I will not buy another Singapore Reit for a long time after this. (Btw, I do not have any… except for 20k of CCT).
Glad to hear Sir look forward to its delisting too. Look forward to the new post on 2013 view too 🙂
May I just clarify I do not have any MIIF share now actually. I am wondering if its advisable to buy some now. I was thinking it is kinda ‘principal protected’ since when it unwinds, I probably get back around 65cents per share (which is the trading price now) but meanwhile I can still get the dividend.
So far I have not invested in any share that get delisted. I am wondering how will they decide how much to pay me back when it get delisted. Am I right to say I will probably get back around 65cents per share? Not sure what risk will I be exposing myself to if I buy some of MIIF now. Hope to learn more about to expect to happen if I get in now.
Thanks again and hope you have a prosperous 2013 ahead with many highly profitable investments.
Sorry for the abrupt reply last night which was tempered with too much whisky resulting in some confusion with another stock.
Anyway, I just checked with our Tradehaven stock guru and he guesses that the NAV is about 71 cents. However, the stock is at new high so there is not a lot of upside.
You will still get dividend for the next year which is a decent return overall.
If I had to buy, I would wait for 60 cts level which will give me a buffer in case there is a sell down etc.
Good luck !
Hi tradehaven,
Thank you so much for sharing your insights and thoughts again. I will monitor the MIIF price for a little while. I am not a ambitious or aggressive person, I will be quite happy if they return me what I invested and give me a bit of coupon in the process. haha.
Btw Temasek has increased its stake from 16% to 17% to 18% today, the share price rose quite a bit and is about 10% below the pre-MW crisis but sadly the 2022 6% is still quite pretty low although the 5 year papers seems to have rebounded quite a bit. I am praying it will improve further, not sure if there’s any chance for my dream will come true.
Looking forward to more post such as 2013 view or updates on the controversial Olam. Hope Sir have fruitful and rewarding investment returns in every investment made.
Does anyone have any idea how are Singapore government bonds applications made? I understand that after purchased, it can be sold thru stock broker like normal shares. But when the application is made through ATM I supposed we will know the coupon of the SGS bond we applying for but will we know the price? (Normally new launches for corporate bond its fixed at 100). I think there is some elements of “auction” and “competitive” vs “non-competitive applicants” involved but not sure exactly how it works. What if they allocate to me at a price that I am not comfortable with? Anyone kind enough to enlighten me please? Thank you so much in advance.