SGD 8 billion worth of corporate papers issued since Jul 1, some over 10 times oversubscribed. I cannot help but feel little alarm bells ringing at the back of my head.
By far, insurance companies and private banks made up the bulk of the purchasers.
I decided to check out if safe was good this year by tabling all the chunky bond issues and seeing how much they have changed. For comparison’s sake, we will use Spread Changes, ie. the yield minus the SOR, to arrive at conclusion on whether there has been gains or opportunity loss instead of the brain numbing prices that bankers keep harping about to convince you that you have made a capital gain.
Quite back breaking work and yet fulfilling to see that SAFE IS NOT ALWAYS GOOD.
Qualifier : The mid prices are based off what quotes I picked off Bloomberg and do not represent trading prices.
Negative is good because I used current minus original spread. So tighter is better.
1. Central China Real Estate 3Y B+, trading at 143 bp tighter.
2. Overseas Union Enterprise 5Y at 68 bp tighter.
3. LMIRT Capital Pte Ltd 3Y at 62 bp tighter.
4. Lend lease Fin Intl Ltd Baa3/BBB- 5Y at60 bp tighter.
5. Dah Sing Bank Subordinated 10Y non call 5Y at 30 bp tighter.
1. Olam International Ltd Perpetual 7% trading at 125 bp wider.
2. Keppel Corp 3.8% 15Y nc 10Y trading at 56 bp wider.
3. Wilmar International Ltr 3.5% 5Y at 45 bp wider.
4. Genting Singapore Perpetual 5.125% at 44 bp wider.
5. Keppel Land Ltd 10Y trading at 28 bp wider.
Several percularities strike me.
1. Safe is not good. Keppel appears twice on the list. Please read my Keppel Jinx article if you have not done so.
2. Capitamalls Sep 2022 and Capitamalls Jan 2022 trading at big difference. The retail tranche is either undervalued or the bid-ask is soooo wide that you cannot arbitrage it.
3. Keppel Corp 10Y and Keppel Corp 15Y nc10Y also displaying an abnormal spread difference. No further comment.
4. As with some of the HDB issues.
Some of the bonds look like they have done well and a frightening thing to note is that HDB (safest of safe) is getting cheaper and cheaper.
Good luck folks.