To Admit Its Way Over My Head – Lets Wipe The Slate Clean – USDJPY !!
Hands up those who want to wipe the slate clean.
Me, me, me.
There are just so many developments and the truth is that Greeks love the Euro but they hate their debt and austerity. Link.
What happens if Greece leaves the Euro ? The economists cannot agree ! Link. And now the ECB officials have signalled they would oppose the recapitalisation of Spain’s Bankia.
China’s biggest banks have cut off handful of European counterparts from borrowing and derivatives trading and yet China is buying up Spain’s assets.
Every single minute that passes, the contagion grows. Uncertainty and fear seeps in. People throw in the towel. Investors may be stoking the volatility that they fear !
Somehow it has now grown into a global problem and even mighty China is going down. Articles have titles like “Run” and “For the Eurozone, the Worst is Yet To Come“. Bill Gross quoted saying “The grip of deleveraging resembles a boa constrictor. Slowly, slowly air is squeezed out of financial markets.”
There is no hope. Even Gold is dead. And economists are not afraid to admit it. Link.
Paulo Coelho said this yesterday.
| Reality is different from fiction. In fiction, things need to make sense. |
I give up too.
The multitude of considerations on everything happening around me is now way over my head. Have to admit, I cannot grasp all the developments that is happening around me and make much sense of what will happen tomorrow or in the next 6 hours.
I am only hanging on to one thing right now. USDJPY does not make sense.
Source : 5Y Bloomberg chart.
If we want to wipe the slate clean, USDJPY should be normalise to 83.00, 93.00 then 103.00 (MIRROR INVERT THE CHART ABOVE FOR INSPIRATION- hahaha) . And the same for Gold.
Why is this happening ? Because its the last no brainer hedge in the world, risk off – sell USDJPY and sell XAUUSD. Because once those silly algorithmic correlational models go kaput like they did in Facebook trading, humans will rule the world again.
They say 2012 is a powerful year. The year the world ends. In a sense, it has ended for alot of people. Like my mom.
But for us who are still here, its time to reclaim nomalcy in the markets. Its time to question the rules. Its time to make the prediction of the year !
Good Luck.
I am long USD/JPY. It is 78.80 now.
31 May 2012
| Japan Fin Min Azumi : Yen’s Rise A Little Speculative; Yen’s Rise Not Reflecting Japan’s Fundamentals At All |