End of March Madness – Bulls in A China Shop
Mad ending to bad news and yet markets speaks volumes otherwise. 
| YTD | Q411 | TOTAL | |
| VENEZUELA | 70.65 | 17.49 | 88.14 |
| EGYPT | 38.52 | -13.59 | 24.93 |
| COLOMBIA | 29.44 | -2.61 | 26.83 |
| VIETNAM | 27.22 | -18.58 | 8.64 |
| TURKEY | 26.87 | -15.46 | 11.41 |
| ROMANIA | 24.4 | -2.69 | 21.71 |
| DUBAI | 21.83 | -5.47 | 16.36 |
| SAUDI ARABIA | 21.26 | 5 | 26.26 |
| PERU | 20.77 | 9.5 | 30.27 |
| HUNGARY | 20.48 | -3.54 | 16.94 |
| THAILAND | 20.24 | 10.42 | 30.66 |
| GERMANY | 20.07 | 3.31 | 23.38 |
| PHILIPPINE | 19.25 | 9.3 | 28.55 |
| CHILE | 18.4 | 7.58 | 25.98 |
| PAKISTAN | 18.44 | -6.11 | 12.33 |
| RUSSIA | 17.41 | 3.04 | 20.45 |
| SINGAPORE | 17.33 | -0.6 | 16.73 |
| POLAND | 16.99 | -6.58 | 10.41 |
| AUSTRIA | 16.82 | -6.41 | 10.41 |
| ESTONIA | 16.74 | -4.61 | 12.13 |
| BRAZIL | 16.71 | 8.21 | 24.92 |
| DENMARK | 15.86 | 7.38 | 23.24 |
| FINLAND | 15.19 | 0.98 | 16.17 |
| MEXICO | 14.99 | 9.73 | 24.72 |
| IRELAND | 14.76 | 11.71 | 26.47 |
| INDIA | 14.55 | -13.39 | 1.16 |
| TAIWAN | 14.17 | -1.49 | 12.68 |
| KAZAKHSTAN | 13.75 | -3.26 | 10.49 |
| BELGIUM | 13.54 | -5.8 | 7.74 |
| NORWAY | 13.35 | 8.18 | 21.53 |
| KENYA | 13.01 | 13.42 | 26.43 |
| CZECH | 12.84 | -8.82 | 4.02 |
| SOUTH KOREA | 12.59 | 5.15 | 17.74 |
| LAOS | 12.51 | -4.12 | 8.39 |
| NEW ZEALAND | 12.34 | -1.39 | 10.95 |
| NZX | 12.26 | -0.19 | 12.07 |
| JAPAN NIKKEI | 11.87 | -2.63 | 9.24 |
| S&P 500 | 11.58 | 11.15 | 22.73 |
| HANG SENG | 11.36 | 5.05 | 16.41 |
| GREECE | 11.25 | -17.88 | -6.63 |
| STOCKHOLM | 10.88 | 7.55 | 18.43 |
| NAMIBIA | 10.33 | 9.68 | 20.01 |
| CAC | 10.24 | 2.11 | 12.35 |
| TOPIX | 10.19 | -4.09 | 6.1 |
| LUXEMBOURG | 9.81 | 0.9 | 10.71 |
| UK | 9.73 | 7.31 | 17.04 |
| AUSTRALIA | 9.03 | 6.72 | 15.75 |
| ITALY | 8.61 | -1.99 | 6.62 |
| SWISS | 8.16 | 3.37 | 11.53 |
| CROATIA | 7.7 | -9.98 | -2.28 |
| DJIA | 7.6 | 11.95 | 19.55 |
| MALAYSIA | 7.38 | 11.26 | 18.64 |
| JAKARTA | 6.96 | 3.8 | 10.76 |
| HANG SENG CHINA | 6.88 | 11.71 | 18.59 |
| KUWAIT | 6.39 | -0.8 | 5.59 |
| ARGENTINA | 6.26 | -2.39 | 3.87 |
| TEL AVIV | 6.28 | -1.33 | 4.95 |
| FTSE | 6.16 | 7.69 | 13.85 |
| SHANGHAI | 3.03 | -5.54 | -2.51 |
Take a look at the table above. I have compiled the stock index returns YTD and for Q411 vs USD. This is a not a sign of slowing. This is a table of REBALANCING.
It’s catch up time and they are catching up fast.
While developed countries slow, the little ‘uns are climbing cataclysmically.
What’s more amazing is that the prices seem to be factoring full fledged QE and LTRO and all the past weeks of trauma since Greece defaulted has not made a dent in the markets.
I do not know how much recycling is going on but it is getting way over my poor head.
| YTD % | |
| SILVER | 16.66 |
| POLISH ZLOTY | 10.86 |
| RUSSIAN RUBLE | 9.53 |
| MEXICAN PESO | 9.08 |
| GOLD | 6.45 |
| TURKISH LIRA | 5.94 |
| NZ DOLLAR | 5.61 |
| SOUTH AFRICAN RAND | 5.31 |
| SWISS FRANC | 4.04 |
| INDIAN RUPEE | 3.88 |
| MALAYSIAN RINGGIT | 3.33 |
| SINGAPORE DOLLAR | 3.17 |
| EURO | 3.09 |
| BRITISH POUND | 3.06 |
| TAIWAN DOLLAR | 2.62 |
| BRAZILIAN REAL | 2.49 |
| THAI BAHT | 2.47 |
| CANADIAN DOLLAR | 2.46 |
| PHILIPPINE PESO | 2.13 |
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR | 1.96 |
| KOREAN WON | 1.71 |
| HONGKONG DOLLAR | 0.04 |
| CHINESE YUAN | -0.06 |
| INDONESIAN RUPIAH | -1.2 |
| ARGENTINE PESO | -1.73 |
| JAPANESE YEN | -6.38 |
Credit markets are roaring. We are above run rate for the League tables all around the world with International issuance USD1.36 Trillion YTD vs USD3.488 Trillion for the entire 2011 and USD 3.489 Trillion for 2010 (ie. approx 39% in 3 months).
It is an occupational hazard that I cannot see any reason for any bullishness and clearly, am missing out something. Maybe its the Facebook IPO. Maybe people prefer to ignore everything that is going on because the truth is too hard to bear and just trade momentums, ie. blindly follow the masses.
Honestly, I cannot blame them. Even Central Bankers are losing the plot fast.
At some point, perhaps sooner than later, people will throw up their hands and vote to wipe out those extra zeroes that make billions look like peanuts.
And looking at the inflationary numbers of the stock indices and currencies ytd in conjunction with the dismal headlines, it does feel like there are alot of closet bears trying to be bulls in a china shop.