EM-ergency ? BRICs slowing, USD go home ?
Some observations and thoughts.
Forex Performance Over 2 Years vs USD.
Stock Markets Performance Over 2 Years.
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand DO STAND OUT as EM stars !
The BRICs, on the other hand, do not seem to be having a good time, even with currency gains included.
Now that Brazil and India have cut rates, and China has signalled easing ahead.
Just read these headlines in sequence.
| 23-Feb-12 | DJFXTrader | China Forex Regulator : Net Forex Inflows To Fall In Coming Years |
| 27-Feb-12 | WSJ Markets | Builders Feel Bite In China |
| 5-Mar-12 | FT | China’s Wen warns of slow growth ahead |
| 8-Mar-12 | 21cbhchinanews | Chinese Steelmakers Remain Stuck In A Rut |
| 8-Mar-12 | Reuters | S&P : China developers getting closer to “downgrade thresholds” |
| 8-Mar-12 | 21CBHChina | China to implement stepwise power tariff in 1st half |
| 9-Mar-12 | TPEconomy | China warns of “big difficulties” with meeting growth target for auto sales this year |
| 9-Mar-12 | WSJ | China Auto Sales Drop Prompt Concerns |
| 10-Mar-12 | Forbes | China’s Billionaire Boom Halts, Country Leads World In Forbes List Drops |
| 10-Mar-12 | Reuters Business | China has $31.5bio Feb trade deficit as imports soar |
| 10-Mar-12 | WSJ | China Posts Massive Trade Deficit |
| 11-Mar-12 | WSJ | Official Says China Likely To Cut Luxury Import Tax |
| 12-Mar-12 | Zerohedge | Shanghai New Home Sales Fall 26% W/w |
| 12-Mar-12 | Forbes | China is heading toward a zero growth economy |
| 12-Mar-12 | Goldcore | Beijing new home sales in Jan-Feb fell 37.5% on year |
| 12-Mar-12 | WSJ | PBOC Sees Room For Reserve Ratio Cuts |
| 13-Mar-12 | DJFxtrader | S&P : Chinese Banks Could Face a Slump in 2012; Expect Moderate Rise In China Non Performing Loan |
| 28-Feb-12 | BLoomberg | Shanghai raises Min Wage 13% as China Seeks To Boost |
| 14-Mar-12 | Reuters | RTRS-CHINA’S WEN SAYS HOUSING PRICES ARE STILL FAR FROM FALLING TO A REASONABLE LEVEL |
| 14-Mar-12 | Reuters | RTRS-CHINA’S WEN SAYS BURST OF PROPERTY BUBBLE COULD HURT ECONOMY |
It will be a slow year.
A year of reflections, reforms and restructuring.
Will Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines escape unscathed ?
I’d imagine not. And its time to act now.