EM-ergency ? BRICs slowing, USD go home ?
Some observations and thoughts.
Forex Performance Over 2 Years vs USD.
Stock Markets Performance Over 2 Years.
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand DO STAND OUT as EM stars !
The BRICs, on the other hand, do not seem to be having a good time, even with currency gains included.
Now that Brazil and India have cut rates, and China has signalled easing ahead.
Just read these headlines in sequence.
|23-Feb-12||DJFXTrader||China Forex Regulator : Net Forex Inflows To Fall In Coming Years|
|27-Feb-12||WSJ Markets||Builders Feel Bite In China|
|5-Mar-12||FT||China’s Wen warns of slow growth ahead|
|8-Mar-12||21cbhchinanews||Chinese Steelmakers Remain Stuck In A Rut|
|8-Mar-12||Reuters||S&P : China developers getting closer to “downgrade thresholds”|
|8-Mar-12||21CBHChina||China to implement stepwise power tariff in 1st half|
|9-Mar-12||TPEconomy||China warns of “big difficulties” with meeting growth target for auto sales this year|
|9-Mar-12||WSJ||China Auto Sales Drop Prompt Concerns|
|10-Mar-12||Forbes||China’s Billionaire Boom Halts, Country Leads World In Forbes List Drops|
|10-Mar-12||Reuters Business||China has $31.5bio Feb trade deficit as imports soar|
|10-Mar-12||WSJ||China Posts Massive Trade Deficit|
|11-Mar-12||WSJ||Official Says China Likely To Cut Luxury Import Tax|
|12-Mar-12||Zerohedge||Shanghai New Home Sales Fall 26% W/w|
|12-Mar-12||Forbes||China is heading toward a zero growth economy|
|12-Mar-12||Goldcore||Beijing new home sales in Jan-Feb fell 37.5% on year|
|12-Mar-12||WSJ||PBOC Sees Room For Reserve Ratio Cuts|
|13-Mar-12||DJFxtrader||S&P : Chinese Banks Could Face a Slump in 2012; Expect Moderate Rise In China Non Performing Loan|
|28-Feb-12||BLoomberg||Shanghai raises Min Wage 13% as China Seeks To Boost|
|14-Mar-12||Reuters||RTRS-CHINA’S WEN SAYS HOUSING PRICES ARE STILL FAR FROM FALLING TO A REASONABLE LEVEL|
|14-Mar-12||Reuters||RTRS-CHINA’S WEN SAYS BURST OF PROPERTY BUBBLE COULD HURT ECONOMY|
It will be a slow year.
A year of reflections, reforms and restructuring.
Will Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines escape unscathed ?
I’d imagine not. And its time to act now.