EM-ergency ? BRICs slowing, USD go home ?

 

Some observations and thoughts.

Forex Performance Over 2 Years vs USD.

Stock Markets Performance Over 2 Years.

Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand DO STAND OUT  as EM stars !
The BRICs, on the other hand, do not seem to be having a good time, even with currency gains included.

Now that Brazil and India have cut rates, and China has signalled easing ahead.

Just read these headlines in sequence.

23-Feb-12 DJFXTrader China Forex Regulator : Net Forex Inflows To Fall In Coming Years
27-Feb-12 WSJ Markets Builders Feel Bite In China
5-Mar-12 FT China’s Wen warns of slow growth ahead
8-Mar-12 21cbhchinanews Chinese Steelmakers Remain Stuck In A Rut
8-Mar-12 Reuters S&P : China developers getting closer to “downgrade thresholds”
8-Mar-12 21CBHChina China to implement stepwise power tariff in 1st half
9-Mar-12 TPEconomy China warns of “big difficulties” with meeting growth target for auto sales this year
9-Mar-12 WSJ China Auto Sales Drop Prompt Concerns
10-Mar-12 Forbes China’s Billionaire Boom Halts, Country Leads World In Forbes List Drops
10-Mar-12 Reuters Business China has $31.5bio Feb trade deficit as imports soar
10-Mar-12 WSJ China Posts Massive Trade Deficit
11-Mar-12 WSJ Official Says China Likely To Cut Luxury Import Tax
12-Mar-12 Zerohedge Shanghai New Home Sales Fall 26% W/w
12-Mar-12 Forbes China is heading toward a zero growth economy
12-Mar-12 Goldcore Beijing new home sales in Jan-Feb fell 37.5% on year
12-Mar-12 WSJ PBOC Sees Room For Reserve Ratio Cuts
13-Mar-12 DJFxtrader S&P : Chinese Banks Could Face a Slump in 2012; Expect Moderate Rise In China Non Performing Loan
28-Feb-12 BLoomberg Shanghai raises Min Wage 13% as China Seeks To Boost
14-Mar-12 Reuters RTRS-CHINA’S WEN SAYS HOUSING PRICES ARE STILL FAR FROM FALLING TO A REASONABLE LEVEL
14-Mar-12 Reuters RTRS-CHINA’S WEN SAYS BURST OF PROPERTY BUBBLE COULD HURT ECONOMY

It will be a slow year.

A year of reflections, reforms and restructuring.

Will Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines escape unscathed ?

I’d imagine not. And its time to act now.