Ad Hoc Commentary – dead gold cat bounce? looks like time for another carnage?
“…Once you get that big, you can’t get out. And once you can’t get out, you’re done…”
“…Paulson is still betting that the return of inflation and a meltdown in global currencies will save his gold investments…”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/21/john-paulson-midas-touch
Just as we said before:
1. too big to trade like the Hunts in 1980
2. it’s not your grandfather market anymore
We had moved from a market of print print print, to one where even Helicopter Ben does not even want to go to Jackson Hole. Helicopter Ben was keynote speaker every year since 2006 because the theme was print print print. Who talks about dropping money off helicopters better than Helicopter Ben?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-21/bernanke-to-miss-jackson-hole-conference-with-schedule-conflict.html
In yours truly mind, dropping money off helicopters is old-school. The fear of a bond market implosion will ensure that the elites and their official channels will repeat after Wolfgang Schaeuble. Now is the time for taxes. In the minds of some finance ministers, printing does not promote sustainable growth… but taxes will? So taxing the private sector to pay off the bondholders is good for growth?
“…But pumping liquidity into their economies without far-reaching structural reforms would not create the conditions for sustainable growth. Mr Schaeuble said. Mr Schaeuble also said he supported a global minimum corporation tax rate and that he remained committed to tackle evasion and tax havens…”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10006065/ECB-should-limit-amount-of-liquidity-in-the-eurozone-says-Wolfgang-Schaeuble.html
In any case, it is time for taxes. In the age of taxes, stay away from that dead gold cat till Paulson throws in the towel.
Good luck in the markets.
@ bernardtcl, I wonder what will happen to those poor investors into those Gold buyback schemes or pyramid scams in reality for those who refused to see it that way still. Seem like anywhere from MYR5 – 10 billion were siphoned off the many retail greedy investors in Singapore and Malaysia http://mybaru1.blogspot.sg/2013/01/how-to-get-back-your-genneva-gold-and.html …. They would have paid a fair bit of money to Dr. Mahathir and Datin Rosmah to grace their events in the past too!
A fool and his money are soon parted? On one hand, it is unethical for people to run Ponzi schemes. At the very best, they destroy confidence in the financial system. Which is a common good that should be preserved.
On the other hand, in general people should be more astute with their money these days. If the returns are too good to be true, it most probably means they are not pricing in some risks. In this case, the risk of a Ponzi, and it unraveling.
Anyways, gold fell from 185 in dec 1974 to 105 in aug 1976. That’s more than 40% move. If we do a the same from September 2011 when uncle Ben disappointed us, then the target from 1920 gold is to 1100 gold. Think we can buy at 1150 with a 50 dollar stop. Just for a punt.
If that breaks, then maybe try just below a thousand. But that is a story for another day. This baby is still a buy on dips. What do you think?